Actual result
R+40.1
Final polls said
R+48.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+42.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+41.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+42.9 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Aspen Media & Market Research | R+48.0 | 7.9 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aspen Media & Market Research | 2006-10-22 | 539 | R+48.0 | 8 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-10-11 | 625 | R+41.0 | 1 |