Alaska Senate
The 2026 Alaska Senate race is essentially a toss-up: Dan S. Sullivan (R) holds a narrow 54% edge, projected to win by about 1 point. Updated daily from 18 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 18 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+1.1 — a 54% Republican win.
Latest news
Alaska Just Has Too Many Dan SullivansYet another Dan Sullivan has entered the chat.In the Alaska Senate race, which has managed to give everyone a headache, former Anchorage Mayor Dan A. Sullivan has endorsed Republican Senator Dan S. Sullivan for reelection over retired teacher Dan J. Sullivan,…
The New Republic · Today
Dan Sullivan Picks His Dan Sullivan to WinIn Alaska's Senate race, the Dan Sullivan backing Dan Sullivan is not the one on the ballot. As NBC News reports, Dan A. Sullivan, a Republican and former Anchorage mayor, has publicly urged voters to support GOP Sen. Dan S. Sullivan over Democratic ex-Rep. M…
Newser · Today
GOP Senate candidate caught splurging on luxurious out-of-state lifestyle: reportSen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) spent thousands on luxury dining and events with money from donors to his re-election campaign, new reporting revealed.According to a Saturday article by The Daily Mail, Sullivan has steered campaign cash into pricey out-of-state dini…
Raw Story · August 22, 2026
Report — No-Show: Democrat U.S. Senate Candidate Mary Peltola Missed 794 Alaska House VotesMary Peltola of Alaska who is a former representative and current Democrat U.S. Senate nominee has claimed to work hard for her community, but her voting record reportedly showed otherwise. The post Report — No-Show: Democrat U.S. Senate Candidate Mary Peltol…
Breitbart News · August 22, 2026
Dem Senate hopeful racked up hundreds of missed votes during stops at multiple taxpayer serving jobsDemocratic Senate nominee Mary Peltola missed 794 of 4,265 Alaska House votes and over a third of Bethel City Council meetings, records show.
Fox News · August 22, 2026
Alaska Senate race’s absurd name problem gets even harder to untangleFormer Anchorage Mayor Dan A. Sullivan endorses incumbent Sen. Dan S. Sullivan over a third Dan Sullivan accused of being a Democratic plant.
Fox News · Today- Alaska Just Has Too Many Dan Sullivans
Yet another Dan Sullivan has entered the chat.In the Alaska Senate race, which has managed to give everyone a headache, former Anchorage Mayor Dan A. Sullivan has endorsed Republican Senator Dan S. Sullivan for reelection over retired teacher Dan J. Sullivan,…
The New Republic · Today - Dan Sullivan Picks His Dan Sullivan to Win
In Alaska's Senate race, the Dan Sullivan backing Dan Sullivan is not the one on the ballot. As NBC News reports, Dan A. Sullivan, a Republican and former Anchorage mayor, has publicly urged voters to support GOP Sen. Dan S. Sullivan over Democratic ex-Rep. M…
Newser · Today 
Dan Sullivan endorses Dan Sullivan to beat Dan Sullivan in perplexing Alaska Senate raceA third Dan Sullivan — a former Anchorage mayor — has weighed in on the competitive Senate race, endorsing Sen. Dan S. Sullivan over former teacher Dan J. Sullivan.
NBC News · Today
Ex-Mayor Dan Sullivan backs Dan Sullivan to beat Dan Sullivan in bonkers Alaska Senate raceAnother Dan Sullivan has chimed in on the bonkers Alaska Senate race saga over his namesake, urging voters to back incumbent Sen. Dan S. Sullivan over his foe, former teacher Dan J. Sullivan.
New York Post · Yesterday
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
18 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Alaska Senate race?
VotePredictor's model favors Dan S. Sullivan (R), with roughly a 54% chance of winning and a projected margin of R+1.1. It is close enough to be a toss-up.
What do the polls say in the Alaska Senate race?
There are 18 polls of this race. The most recent, from Alaska Survey Research (2026-08-05), showed D+1.6. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is R+1.1.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Alaska Senate race?
Mary Peltola is the Democratic candidate; Dan S. Sullivan is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Alaska Senate election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Alaska Senate race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.