Alaska Senate
Dan S. Sullivan (R) is a modest favorite to win the 2026 Alaska Senate race — about a 62% chance, winning by about 1 point in the projection, though it has tightened lately. Updated daily from 9 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 9 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+1.1 — a 62% Republican win.
Latest news
JD Vance Brags About Getting Nothing Done While He Was a SenatorVice President JD Vance spoke for roughly 35 minutes at a MAGA rally in Fairbanks, Alaska, Monday evening. Within that time, he managed to admit that he really didn’t do very much while representing his home state of Ohio.The confession came on the back of an…
The New Republic · October 6, 2026
Transcript: Trump Tirade over Shrinking Rally Crowds Emasculates MAGAThe following is a lightly edited transcript of the October 6 episode of the Daily Blast podcast. Listen to it here.Greg Sargent: This is The Daily Blast from The New Republic, produced and presented by the DSR Network. I’m your host, Greg Sargent.Donald Trum…
The New Republic · October 6, 2026
Trump Is Pretending to Create Jobs in Key Midterm StatesThe political ascent of Donald Trump has forced me to adjust upward my estimation of the American public’s gullibility. That Trump is a fraud is something I would have been able to perceive when I was 7 years old. Yet Americans twice elected him president. If…
The New Republic · October 6, 2026
Usha Vance nearly tumbles down helicopter stairs while carrying infant sonSecond lady Usha Vance nearly fell down the steps of the vice presidential helicopter while carrying her infant son.C-SPAN shared footage of the Vances exiting the helicopter on Monday, after network staffer Howard Mortman flagged it. The family was at Joint …
Raw Story · October 5, 2026
'I don't get it': GOP bewildered as Trump rallies in states that aren't even competitivePresident Donald Trump is opening the final weeks of the midterm campaign on defense.The 80-year-old president is rallying in deep-red states where Republican Senate candidates are suddenly struggling, and the strategy has some in his own party scratching the…
Raw Story · October 5, 2026
Republican Senator Gets Warning Sign From New Alaska PollDemocrat Mary Peltola holds a tight lead over Republican incumbent Senator Dan S. Sullivan in Alaska's Senate race ahead of the November election, a new poll has revealed. The survey, conducted by AARP between September 8-11, showed Peltola on 46 percent of t…
Biztoc.com · September 17, 2026
Mysterious Wisconsin-based super PAC elevates ‘Decoy Dan’ Sullivan in Alaska, after backing other spoilersRetired teacher Dan J. Sullivan, also known as “Decoy Dan” because he shares the same name as incumbent Sen. Dan S. Sullivan, is getting some backup from a mysterious super PAC.
New York Post · September 16, 2026
Alaska’s Senate Race Just Got More Confusing: 2 Republican Dan Sullivans AdvanceBy VIRGINIA GRACE MCKINNON, The Daily Signal | August 26, 2026 Republican Dan J. Sullivan officially joined Alaska GOP Sen. Dan S. Sullivan as two of the state’s top four midterm candidates Wednesday morning. Both Republican Dan Sullivans will appear on the …
Biztoc.com · August 27, 2026
What’s Driving Kamala Harris’s Midterm Endorsement Strategy?You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside Washington Kamala Harris has been flexing her political power in the South this year, most r…
The New Republic · August 27, 2026
Alaska’s Senate Race Just Got More Confusing: Two Republican Dan Sullivans AdvanceRepublican Dan J. Sullivan officially joined Alaska GOP Sen. Dan S. Sullivan as two of the state’s top four midterm candidates Wednesday morning. Both Republican Dan Sullivans will appear on the four-person, ranked-choice November ballot, which critics alread…
Daily Signal · August 26, 2026
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The polls behind it
9 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Alaska Senate race?
VotePredictor's model favors Dan S. Sullivan (R), with roughly a 62% chance of winning and a projected margin of R+1.1.
What do the polls say in the Alaska Senate race?
There are 9 polls of this race. The most recent, from FiftyPlusOne (2026-10-01), showed D+3.9. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is R+1.1.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Alaska Senate race?
Mary Peltola is the Democratic candidate; Dan S. Sullivan is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Alaska Senate election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 Alaska Senate forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, the race has tightened; Dan S. Sullivan (R) is now favored at 62%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Alaska Senate race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.