Alaska Senate
The 2026 Alaska Senate race is essentially a toss-up: Dan S. Sullivan (R) holds a narrow 56% edge, projected to win by less than a point, though it has tightened lately. Updated daily from 13 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 13 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+0.5 — a 56% Republican win.
Latest news
Republicans scramble in panic as vulnerable red-state senator losing groundPresident Trump traveled roughly 4,000 miles over eight hours to a hockey rink in Wasilla, Alaska, to energize voters for Sen. Dan Sullivan, who is in a harder fight than expected against Democrat Mary Peltola, according to Politico.Trump won Alaska by 13 poi…
Raw Story · Yesterday
Will Republicans or Democrats win the Senate? These key midterm races will decide.Control of both chambers of Congress is up for grabs in November's election. But as important as the House of Representatives is, all signs point to the true drama of the midterms being in the battle for the Senate. There are 35 Senate seats on the ballot thi…
Yahoo Entertainment · October 13, 2026
Mary Peltola raises $17 million in Q3 in Alaska’s Senate raceFormer Rep. Mary Peltola raked in $17 million over the last three months, her campaign shared first with POLITICO, a sizable haul for the Democratic challenger in one of the biggest Senate battlegrounds. It’s Peltola’s largest quarterly fundraising total in h…
Biztoc.com · October 13, 2026
Mary Peltola Leads Alaska Polls as Trump Schedules Rally for Dan SullivanDemocrat Mary Peltola extended her polling lead over Republican Senator Dan Sullivan in Alaska on Sunday, with a 6-point advantage three weeks out from Election Day. The former U.S. representative's edge precedes President Donald Trump's trip to Alaska to ral…
Biztoc.com · October 12, 2026
Chronically Absent Mary Peltola Drew Highest Salary in Alaska Legislature, Billed Taxpayers Hawaii VacationDemocrat Mary Peltola was Alaska’s highest-paid state house representative yet missed 18.6 percent of votes in her five terms in office in the legislature, yet she found the time to bill taxpayers for a corporate retreat in Hawaii. In 2008, Peltola's final ye…
Breitbart News · October 12, 2026
Republican Senator Gets Warning Sign From New Alaska PollDemocrat Mary Peltola holds a tight lead over Republican incumbent Senator Dan S. Sullivan in Alaska's Senate race ahead of the November election, a new poll has revealed. The survey, conducted by AARP between September 8-11, showed Peltola on 46 percent of t…
Biztoc.com · September 17, 2026
Mysterious Wisconsin-based super PAC elevates ‘Decoy Dan’ Sullivan in Alaska, after backing other spoilersRetired teacher Dan J. Sullivan, also known as “Decoy Dan” because he shares the same name as incumbent Sen. Dan S. Sullivan, is getting some backup from a mysterious super PAC.
New York Post · September 16, 2026
Alaska’s Senate Race Just Got More Confusing: 2 Republican Dan Sullivans AdvanceBy VIRGINIA GRACE MCKINNON, The Daily Signal | August 26, 2026 Republican Dan J. Sullivan officially joined Alaska GOP Sen. Dan S. Sullivan as two of the state’s top four midterm candidates Wednesday morning. Both Republican Dan Sullivans will appear on the …
Biztoc.com · August 27, 2026
What’s Driving Kamala Harris’s Midterm Endorsement Strategy?You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside Washington Kamala Harris has been flexing her political power in the South this year, most r…
The New Republic · August 27, 2026
Alaska’s Senate Race Just Got More Confusing: Two Republican Dan Sullivans AdvanceRepublican Dan J. Sullivan officially joined Alaska GOP Sen. Dan S. Sullivan as two of the state’s top four midterm candidates Wednesday morning. Both Republican Dan Sullivans will appear on the four-person, ranked-choice November ballot, which critics alread…
Daily Signal · August 26, 2026
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The polls behind it
13 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Alaska Senate race?
VotePredictor's model favors Dan S. Sullivan (R), with roughly a 56% chance of winning and a projected margin of R+0.5.
What do the polls say in the Alaska Senate race?
There are 13 polls of this race. The most recent, from FiftyPlusOne (2026-10-10), showed D+2.8. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is R+0.5.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Alaska Senate race?
Mary Peltola is the Democratic candidate; Dan S. Sullivan is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Alaska Senate election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 Alaska Senate forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, the race has tightened; Dan S. Sullivan (R) is now favored at 56%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Alaska Senate race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.