VotePredictor
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Alaska Senate

Mary Peltola (D) vs Dan S. Sullivan (R)

Forecast — win probability
Mary Peltola (D)
40%
(R) Dan S. Sullivan
60%
Toss-up · model margin R+2.5

Why this forecast

This forecast is poll-driven: 11 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+2.5 — a 60% Republican win.

Forecast over time

The model's win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date. Dashed line = even odds.

0255075100FebMarAprMayJunJul60% R40% D
Democrats 40% Republicans 60%

Latest news

Mary Peltola (D)
Dan S. Sullivan (R)

Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.

Polls (11)

PollsterDatenPoll
The New York Times/Siena University2026-06-29593R+2.0
New York Times/Siena University[58]2026-06-29593R+2.0
New York Times/Siena University[60]2026-06-29593R+2.0
Alaska Survey Research2026-06-071393D+5.2
Race to the WH[59]2026-05-27D+0.4
Race to the WH[57]2026-05-27D+3.9
Alaska Survey Research2026-05-171401D+4.6
Alaska Survey Research2026-04-19D+3.5
Alaska Survey Research2026-03-221283D+4.8
Public Policy Polling2026-01-17611D+2.0
Alaska Survey Research2026-01-111681D+1.6