Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 11 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+2.5 — a 60% Republican win.
Forecast over time
The model's win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date. Dashed line = even odds.
Latest news
Trump DOJ enters the fray against 'ghost candidate' in bizarre GOP Senate racePresident Donald Trump's Justice Department is getting involved with a spat in Alaska over two candidates with the same name.The Alaska U.S. Senate race features Dan S. Sullivan, the Republican incumbent, trying to fend off a well-funded and strong challenge …
Raw Story · July 2, 2026
What SCOTUS’s Campaign Finance Ruling Means for Democrats“This is Citizens United 2.0,” Representative Greg Casar said Tuesday about the Supreme Court’s ruling allowing political party campaign committees to coordinate directly with campaigns without a cap on spending. Republicans praised the decision, while Democr…
The New Republic · July 1, 2026
Both Dan Sullivans Can Appear On Ballot, Court RulesThe double Dan Sullivan drama does indeed seem to be over. Division of Elections Director Carol Beecher's ruling a few weeks ago that Sullivan was not a “good faith” candidate had no basis in law. Source: New York Times The double Dan Sullivan drama appears t…
Crooksandliars.com · June 30, 2026
GOP suffers big blow as red state ordered to list 2 Senate candidates with same nameAlaska Republicans' bid to keep a second Dan Sullivan off the U.S. Senate ballot has failed at the state's highest court.The Alaska Supreme Court on Monday affirmed a lower-court order directing the state Division of Elections to include Daniel J. Sullivan Jr…
Raw Story · June 30, 2026- Alaska Judge Rules That Bogus Democrat-Recruited Senate Candidate Can Remain on Ballot(Sullivan)
The false Sullivan had never previously affiliated with the Republican party until his decision to run against the incumbent Dan Sullivan. He employed a consultant who is a well known supporter of Mary Peltola, a Democrat running for the same office.
Freerepublic.com · June 27, 2026
Trump DOJ enters the fray against 'ghost candidate' in bizarre GOP Senate racePresident Donald Trump's Justice Department is getting involved with a spat in Alaska over two candidates with the same name.The Alaska U.S. Senate race features Dan S. Sullivan, the Republican incumbent, trying to fend off a well-funded and strong challenge …
Raw Story · July 2, 2026
Both Dan Sullivans Can Appear On Ballot, Court RulesThe double Dan Sullivan drama does indeed seem to be over. Division of Elections Director Carol Beecher's ruling a few weeks ago that Sullivan was not a “good faith” candidate had no basis in law. Source: New York Times The double Dan Sullivan drama appears t…
Crooksandliars.com · June 30, 2026
Alaska court allows second Dan Sullivan back on Senate ballot in blow to RepublicansAlaska's highest court has allowed retired teacher Dan J. Sullivan to be on the ballot as a Republican against incumbent GOP Sen. Dan S. Sullivan despite concerns that the move could confuse voters.
New York Post · June 30, 2026
GOP suffers big blow as red state ordered to list 2 Senate candidates with same nameAlaska Republicans' bid to keep a second Dan Sullivan off the U.S. Senate ballot has failed at the state's highest court.The Alaska Supreme Court on Monday affirmed a lower-court order directing the state Division of Elections to include Daniel J. Sullivan Jr…
Raw Story · June 30, 2026
Rando ‘Dan Sullivan’ kicked off Alaska ballot in a win for the real Sen. Dan SullivanAlaska's top election official ruled Monday that retired teacher Dan J. Sullivan is disqualified from running as a Republican against Sen. Dan S. Sullivan (R-Alaska) in one of the most competitive Senate races in the country.
New York Post · June 15, 2026
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Polls (11)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena University | 2026-06-29 | 593 | R+2.0 |
| New York Times/Siena University[58] | 2026-06-29 | 593 | R+2.0 |
| New York Times/Siena University[60] | 2026-06-29 | 593 | R+2.0 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2026-06-07 | 1393 | D+5.2 |
| Race to the WH[59] | 2026-05-27 | — | D+0.4 |
| Race to the WH[57] | 2026-05-27 | — | D+3.9 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2026-05-17 | 1401 | D+4.6 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2026-04-19 | — | D+3.5 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2026-03-22 | 1283 | D+4.8 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2026-01-17 | 611 | D+2.0 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2026-01-11 | 1681 | D+1.6 |