Actual result
D+0.6
Final polls said
D+7.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+3.9
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Impact Research | D+1.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+3.9 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | GQR | D+7.0 | 6.4 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GQR | 2008-10-20 | 403 | D+7.0 | 6 |
| Impact Research | 2008-10-06 | 400 | D+1.0 | 0 |