Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 13 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+1.6 — a 56% Republican win.
Forecast over time
The model's win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date. Dashed line = even odds.
Latest news
MAGA flies into rage over air conditioners: 'Democrats are coming for your AC!'Republicans yelped about socialism after Mayor Zohran Mamdani urged New Yorkers to keep their thermostats set at 78 degrees to ease strain on the city's power grid during a brutal heat wave.The city is expecting numerous days of extreme temperatures through t…
Raw Story · July 2, 2026- Ohio Campaign Pits Covid Nightmare vs. the American Dream
In the governor’s race, Vivek Ramaswamy reminds voters that Amy Acton closed their schools.Canton, Ohio“You guys know I’ve worked with everyone on any side of an aisle who’ll solve a problem. But it’s now about extreme wealth, power, ideology, special interes…
Freerepublic.com · June 29, 2026 
Fox News poll spells trouble for big-name Republicans in OhioA new Fox News poll of topline races in Ohio has alarming signs for Republicans.According to the poll, "By a 15-point margin, Ohioans view Trump negatively: 42% hold a favorable opinion and 57% an unfavorable one. That’s more than a 20-point swing compared to…
Raw Story · June 4, 2026
Ohio Democrat Running for Governor Poses as Moderate Despite Overseeing Millions in Grants to Radical Left-Wing GroupsWhile Democrat Amy Acton served as a grants manager at the Columbus Foundation, records show the foundation administered millions of dollars in 2017 and 2018 to organizations involved in abortion services, civil liberties litigation, immigration and refugee s…
Breitbart News · May 13, 2026
From the Halls of Congress to Out on the Trail, Women Beg the Question: Why Not You?Weekend Reading on Women’s Representation is a compilation of stories about women’s representation in politics, on boards, in sports and entertainment, in judicial offices and in the private sector in the U.S. and around the world—with a little gardening and …
Ms. Magazine · May 8, 2026
- MAGA flies into rage over air conditioners: 'Democrats are coming for your AC!'
Republicans yelped about socialism after Mayor Zohran Mamdani urged New Yorkers to keep their thermostats set at 78 degrees to ease strain on the city's power grid during a brutal heat wave.The city is expecting numerous days of extreme temperatures through t…
Raw Story · July 2, 2026 - Ohio Campaign Pits Covid Nightmare vs. the American Dream
In the governor’s race, Vivek Ramaswamy reminds voters that Amy Acton closed their schools.Canton, Ohio“You guys know I’ve worked with everyone on any side of an aisle who’ll solve a problem. But it’s now about extreme wealth, power, ideology, special interes…
Freerepublic.com · June 29, 2026 - The Political Machine 2024 2026 Edition-SKIDROW
Release Description:Run for President in the latest edition of Stardock’s popular political strategy game series, The Political Machine 2024. Choose from a roster of existing candidates including Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Dean Phillips and Nikki Haley or creat…
Rlsbb.to · June 28, 2026 - Fox News poll spells trouble for big-name Republicans in Ohio
A new Fox News poll of topline races in Ohio has alarming signs for Republicans.According to the poll, "By a 15-point margin, Ohioans view Trump negatively: 42% hold a favorable opinion and 57% an unfavorable one. That’s more than a 20-point swing compared to…
Raw Story · June 4, 2026 
Vivek Ramaswamy's Horrific Racist Attack On Black BabiesIn 2023, Vivek Ramaswamy launched an ignorant and racist attack on African-Americans when he claimed black babies were safer in inner cities than in a black mom's womb. He then tied it to Planned Parenthood as a way to cull Black communities. None of this ma…
Crooksandliars.com · June 3, 2026
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Polls (13)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Times/Siena University[144] | 2026-06-28 | 601 | EVEN |
| The New York Times/Siena University | 2026-06-28 | 601 | EVEN |
| 270toWin[140] | 2026-06-25 | — | D+2.0 |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | 2026-06-16 | 800 | D+3.0 |
| Race to the WH[142] | 2026-06-16 | — | D+1.2 |
| RealClearPolitics[143] | 2026-06-16 | — | D+1.0 |
| Decision Desk HQ[141] | 2026-06-04 | — | D+3.0 |
| Tulchin Research[146][E] | 2026-06-04 | 600 | D+3.0 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2026-06-01 | 1015 | D+1.0 |
| Bowling Green State University/YouGov | 2026-04-14 | 1000 | R+1.0 |
| Echelon Insights | 2026-04-09 | 413 | R+5.0 |
| Quantus Insights | 2026-03-14 | 925 | D+1.0 |
| EMC Research | 2026-02-22 | 1343 | D+10.0 |