Ohio Governor
The 2026 Ohio Governor race is essentially a toss-up: Amy Acton (D) holds a narrow 55% edge, projected to win by less than a point. Updated daily from 10 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 10 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+0.5 — a 55% Democratic win.
Latest news
Vivek Ramaswamy Gets Boost After Five Ohio Polling Blows in a RowRepublican Vivek Ramaswamy edged out Democrat Amy Acton in a new poll of the Ohio governor’s race, breaking a string of five recent surveys that gave Acton a lead in the state that President Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024. A new co/efficient poll, …
Biztoc.com · Yesterday
Are Republicans About To Pull Out Of Ohio?It's hard to tell how much credence to give this, but the theory is that Ohio is too expensive and both Ramaswamy for Governor and Husted for Senate are underperforming expectations. The tens of millions the GOP are sinking into Ohio every week could be bette…
Crooksandliars.com · Yesterday
Sherrod Brown Leads in Ohio Senate RaceA new CNN poll in Ohio finds Sherrod Brown (D) leading Jon Husted (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 49% to 43%. Ohio Senate Race Sherrod Brown (D) 49% Jon Husted (R) 43% CNN poll · likely voters · ±4.5% The same poll in Ohio finds Amy Acton (D) leading Vivek R…
Politicalwire.com · Yesterday
GOP fears 'industrial-strength MAGA racism' will torpedo own candidate: reportRepublicans are increasingly fearful that “industrial-strength MAGA racism” may end up backfiring by sinking a GOP candidate running in an otherwise “very winnable” race, Zeteo reported Wednesday.Vivek Ramaswamy, Ohio’s GOP gubernatorial nominee, has trailed …
Raw Story · October 7, 2026
Ohio Governor Race Turns Into Brutal, Personal SlugfestOhio's governor's race has gone beyond heated: it's turning into a character-assassination contest that voters may be tuning out. A New York Times /Siena poll shows Democrat Amy Acton slightly ahead of Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, even as both are battered by …
Newser · October 6, 2026
- Vivek Ramaswamy Gets Boost After Five Ohio Polling Blows in a Row
Republican Vivek Ramaswamy edged out Democrat Amy Acton in a new poll of the Ohio governor’s race, breaking a string of five recent surveys that gave Acton a lead in the state that President Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024. A new co/efficient poll, …
Biztoc.com · Yesterday - Are Republicans About To Pull Out Of Ohio?
It's hard to tell how much credence to give this, but the theory is that Ohio is too expensive and both Ramaswamy for Governor and Husted for Senate are underperforming expectations. The tens of millions the GOP are sinking into Ohio every week could be bette…
Crooksandliars.com · Yesterday - Sherrod Brown Leads in Ohio Senate Race
A new CNN poll in Ohio finds Sherrod Brown (D) leading Jon Husted (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 49% to 43%. Ohio Senate Race Sherrod Brown (D) 49% Jon Husted (R) 43% CNN poll · likely voters · ±4.5% The same poll in Ohio finds Amy Acton (D) leading Vivek R…
Politicalwire.com · Yesterday 
DAVID MARCUS: In Dayton, Ohio, both parties face bitter political despondencyDayton voters expressed deep skepticism toward Vivek Ramaswamy and Jon Husted, saying neither party delivers real change to struggling Ohio communities.
Fox News · October 7, 2026- GOP fears 'industrial-strength MAGA racism' will torpedo own candidate: report
Republicans are increasingly fearful that “industrial-strength MAGA racism” may end up backfiring by sinking a GOP candidate running in an otherwise “very winnable” race, Zeteo reported Wednesday.Vivek Ramaswamy, Ohio’s GOP gubernatorial nominee, has trailed …
Raw Story · October 7, 2026
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The polls behind it
10 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Ohio Governor race?
VotePredictor's model favors Amy Acton (D), with roughly a 55% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+0.5. It is close enough to be a toss-up.
What do the polls say in the Ohio Governor race?
There are 10 polls of this race. The most recent, from CNN/SSRS (2026-10-05), showed D+8.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+0.5.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Ohio Governor race?
Amy Acton is the Democratic candidate; Vivek Ramaswamy is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Ohio Governor election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Ohio Governor race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.