Ohio Governor
Vivek Ramaswamy (R) is a slight favorite to win the 2026 Ohio Governor race — about a 60% chance, winning by about 3 points in the projection, after the lead recently flipped. Updated daily from 10 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 10 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+2.6 — a 60% Republican win.
Latest news
‘Great candidate’: JD Vance backs ‘friend’ Vivek Ramaswamy for Ohio governorUS Vice President JD Vance has endorsed Vivek Ramaswamy for Ohio governor. Ramaswamy, an Indian-American entrepreneur, won the Republican primary with Donald Trump's backing. He will face Democrat Amy Acton in the November election. Vance highlighted his Rust…
The Times of India · August 22, 2026
Transcript: Fox Hits Trump with Brutal Polls as Aides Feed Him HopiumThe following is a lightly edited transcript of the August 14 episode of the Daily Blast podcast. Listen to it here.After we recorded, new Fox polls found Dems up eight in Ohio and down four in Michigan.Greg Sargent: This is The Daily Blast from The New Repub…
The New Republic · August 14, 2026
Are Ohio Democrats in ‘Disarray’ Over Amy Acton’s Support for Voter ID?Support for Voter ID looks to be dividing Ohio Democrats. Dr. Amy Acton, their nominee for governor, has come out in support of Issue 3 for the November election. On Friday, Acton told Signal Statewide that she accepts the possibility that Ohio’s voter ID law…
Daily Signal · August 12, 2026
Vivek Ramaswamy's Chances of Losing to Amy Acton in Ohio—New PollRepublican Vivek Ramaswamy trailed Democrat Amy Acton in a new poll of the Ohio governor's race released by Tulchin Research on Wednesday, as Democrats hope to make the Buckeye State competitive in this year's midterm elections. Once a swing state, Ohio has d…
Biztoc.com · August 12, 2026
The Big Question in Iowa’s Senate RaceYou’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free. Inside WashingtonThe big question in Iowa’s Senate raceIs Iowa still a swing state? That’s what De…
The New Republic · August 11, 2026
- ‘Great candidate’: JD Vance backs ‘friend’ Vivek Ramaswamy for Ohio governor
US Vice President JD Vance has endorsed Vivek Ramaswamy for Ohio governor. Ramaswamy, an Indian-American entrepreneur, won the Republican primary with Donald Trump's backing. He will face Democrat Amy Acton in the November election. Vance highlighted his Rust…
The Times of India · August 22, 2026 
Ramaswamy will make a great Governor of Ohio: VanceUS Vice President J D Vance has endorsed his friend Vivek Ramaswamy for Ohio Governor. Ramaswamy, an Indian American entrepreneur, is seeking the Republican nomination for the election. Vance stated that Ramaswamy will make a great governor for the state of O…
The Times of India · August 22, 2026
MAGA candidate hit with renewed questions over suspected ‘pump and dump’ scheme: expertRepublican gubernatorial nominee in Ohio Vivek Ramaswamy is facing hard “questions” over his past conduct related to a biopharmaceutical company, conduct that one expert suggested bore all the hallmarks of a classic “pump and dump ” scheme.Ramaswamy bought …
Raw Story · August 15, 2026
Ohio Poll: GOP's Vivek Ramaswamy Is Ahead of His Democrat Opponent, but Sen. Jon Husted Is Trailing HisTwo Ohio Republican candidates, gubernatorial hopeful Vivek Ramaswamy and Sen. Jon Husted, running to keep his U.S. Senate seat, are showing different results in a recent poll. The post Ohio Poll: GOP’s Vivek Ramaswamy Is Ahead of His Democrat Opponent, but S…
Breitbart News · August 14, 2026- Transcript: Fox Hits Trump with Brutal Polls as Aides Feed Him Hopium
The following is a lightly edited transcript of the August 14 episode of the Daily Blast podcast. Listen to it here.After we recorded, new Fox polls found Dems up eight in Ohio and down four in Michigan.Greg Sargent: This is The Daily Blast from The New Repub…
The New Republic · August 14, 2026
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The polls behind it
10 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Ohio Governor race?
VotePredictor's model favors Vivek Ramaswamy (R), with roughly a 60% chance of winning and a projected margin of R+2.6.
What do the polls say in the Ohio Governor race?
There are 10 polls of this race. The most recent, from Wedgewood Polls (2026-08-13), showed D+1.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is R+2.6.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Ohio Governor race?
Amy Acton is the Democratic candidate; Vivek Ramaswamy is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Ohio Governor election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 Ohio Governor forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, the lead has changed hands — it now favors Vivek Ramaswamy (R) at 60%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Ohio Governor race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.