Actual result
D+9.1
Final polls said
D+6.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+2.5
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Impact Research | D+12.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+2.5 | 6.6 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research | 2008-09-09 | 502 | D+12.0 | 1 |
| Impact Research | 2008-04-05 | 500 | D+1.0 | 7 |