Actual result
R+17.5
Final polls said
R+19.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+16.7
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+16.7 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | R+19.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+14.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 407 | R+19.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-30 | 500 | R+14.0 | 3 |