Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 2 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+9.1 — a 72% Republican win. With only a poll or two this early, the forecast stays cautious and leans partly on the seat's history.
Forecast over time
The model's win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date. Dashed line = even odds.
Latest news
Lynne Walz wins Democratic nomination for governor in NebraskaLynne Walz wins Democratic nomination for governor in Nebraska
Abcnews.com · May 13, 2026
Lynne Walz wins Democratic nomination for governor in NebraskaLynne Walz wins Democratic nomination for governor in Nebraska
Abcnews.com · May 13, 2026
Nebraska lawmakers narrowly advance trans health care bill after internal chaosLINCOLN — Chaos erupted on the floor of the Nebraska Legislature on Thursday after a last-minute effort to consider an “olive branch” amendment on a bill to restrict some gender-affirming care for minors. Legislative Bill 574, proposed by State Sen. Kathleen …
Raw Story · April 14, 2023
Fiery debate erupt in Nebraska House over amendment to Holocaust billA sometimes fiery debate erupted Wednesday in the State Legislature over whether Nebraska schoolchildren are learning enough about slavery and genocide.The discussion was spiced by complaints about the power of the governor.The dialogue came over the last bil…
Raw Story · April 15, 2022
Lieutenant governor hopeful criticizes veto of schools billLINCOLN, Neb. (AP) — A Democratic candidate for Nebraska lieutenant governor is criticizing Gov. Pete Ricketts’ veto of a bill she introduced this year to expand mental health services in schools. State Sen. Lynne Walz, of Fremont, made the comments Tuesday w…
The Seattle Times · May 1, 2018
University Scraps Sexuality Textbook for Containing ‘Graphic Images’University Scraps Sexuality Textbook for Containing ‘Graphic Images’ Emma Whitford Wed, 06/03/2026 - 03:00 AM The University of Nebraska at Kearney investigated several complaints in May, including one from Gov. Jim Pillen calling a training module a…
Inside Higher Ed · June 3, 2026
Nebraska: Governor signs executive order to fight antisemitism and protect Jewish studentsNebraska Governor Jim Pillen signed a landmark executive order on Friday to bolster protections against antisemitism at the state’s public schools.
Israelnationalnews.com · May 31, 2026
Nebraska Gov. Jim Pillen Blasts University Transgender Training as ‘Woke Indoctrination’"help create more supportive environments for trans-spectrum students" The post Nebraska Gov. Jim Pillen Blasts University Transgender Training as ‘Woke Indoctrination’ first appeared on Le·gal In·sur·rec·tion.
Legalinsurrection.com · May 22, 2026
Jim Pillen wins Republican nomination for governor in NebraskaJim Pillen wins Republican nomination for governor in Nebraska
Abcnews.com · May 13, 2026- Nebraska secretary of state loses GOP primary
Nebraska Secretary of State Bob Evnen (R) is projected to lose his slot as the state’s top elections official to a primary challenger, according to Decision Desk HQ. Omaha businessman Scott Petersen won Tuesday’s Republican primary in the Cornhusker State, le…
Freerepublic.com · May 13, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Research Partners | 2026-04-29 | 900 | R+2.0 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2026-04-07 | 670 | R+5.0 |