Nebraska Governor
Jim Pillen (R) is all but certain to win the 2026 Nebraska Governor race — about a 99% chance, winning by about 11 points in the projection, and the lead has grown lately. Updated daily from 5 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 5 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+11.2 — a 99% Republican win.
Latest news
Trump mangles MAGA gov's name to his face as he racks up string of mental flubs at rallyA confused President Donald Trump appeared to blend the name of his own endorsed governor with one of his favorite political targets at a Monday night rally in Nebraska, one of several stumbles during a speech that ran nearly 90 minutes, according to The Dail…
Raw Story · October 6, 2026
GOP Governor Leading Immigration Crackdown Hires Undocumented WorkersRepublican Nebraska Governor Jim Pillen, a staunch supporter of President Trump’s extreme immigration crackdown, relied on undocumented Hispanic labor to build his multimillion dollar pig-farming business, according to The New York Times. As governor, Pillen …
The New Republic · September 9, 2026
Lynne Walz wins Democratic nomination for governor in NebraskaLynne Walz wins Democratic nomination for governor in Nebraska
Abcnews.com · May 13, 2026- Lynne Walz wins Democratic nomination for governor in Nebraska
Lynne Walz wins Democratic nomination for governor in Nebraska
Abcnews.com · May 13, 2026 
Nebraska lawmakers narrowly advance trans health care bill after internal chaosLINCOLN — Chaos erupted on the floor of the Nebraska Legislature on Thursday after a last-minute effort to consider an “olive branch” amendment on a bill to restrict some gender-affirming care for minors. Legislative Bill 574, proposed by State Sen. Kathleen …
Raw Story · April 14, 2023
Trump Sparks Outrage by Suggesting Iran 'Take Out' L.A. and San DiegoPresident Donald Trump riled up California leaders by suggesting Iran could “take out” Los Angeles and San Diego with a nuclear weapon. Trump, 80, made the outrageous comment while speaking at a rally in Grand Island, Nebraska, on Monday, October 5, in suppor…
Us Weekly · October 6, 2026- Trump mangles MAGA gov's name to his face as he racks up string of mental flubs at rally
A confused President Donald Trump appeared to blend the name of his own endorsed governor with one of his favorite political targets at a Monday night rally in Nebraska, one of several stumbles during a speech that ran nearly 90 minutes, according to The Dail…
Raw Story · October 6, 2026 
Red state parents rip Trump as child care costs spike: 'Never had this problem before'OMAHA — Josh Wigginton and his wife each went to work Friday. One dropped off daughter Nayeli at their childcare center, which transports the 7-year-old to school and back. The other parent picked her up after the work day.It’s a longtime routine that nearly …
Raw Story · October 5, 2026- US: Nebraskans Losing Coverage as Medicaid Changes
Nebraska’s efforts to implement new, federally mandated work requirements for Medicaid underscore fears that millions of people will experience avoidable barriers to healthcare coverage.Federal authorities could have chosen to blunt the impact of the federal …
Human Rights Watch · October 1, 2026 - GOP Governor Leading Immigration Crackdown Hires Undocumented Workers
Republican Nebraska Governor Jim Pillen, a staunch supporter of President Trump’s extreme immigration crackdown, relied on undocumented Hispanic labor to build his multimillion dollar pig-farming business, according to The New York Times. As governor, Pillen …
The New Republic · September 9, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Nebraska Governor race?
VotePredictor's model favors Jim Pillen (R), with roughly a 99% chance of winning and a projected margin of R+11.2.
What do the polls say in the Nebraska Governor race?
There are 5 polls of this race. The most recent, from co/efficient (2026-09-30), showed R+5.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is R+11.2.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Nebraska Governor race?
Lynne Walz is the Democratic candidate; Jim Pillen is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Nebraska Governor election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 Nebraska Governor forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, Jim Pillen's (R) lead has widened to 99%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Nebraska Governor race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.