Nebraska Governor
Jim Pillen (R) is favored to win the 2026 Nebraska Governor race — about a 72% chance, winning by about 9 points in the projection. Updated daily from 2 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 2 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+9.1 — a 72% Republican win. With only a poll or two this early, the forecast stays cautious and leans partly on the seat's history.
Latest news
Lynne Walz wins Democratic nomination for governor in NebraskaLynne Walz wins Democratic nomination for governor in Nebraska
Abcnews.com · May 13, 2026- Lynne Walz wins Democratic nomination for governor in Nebraska
Lynne Walz wins Democratic nomination for governor in Nebraska
Abcnews.com · May 13, 2026 
Nebraska lawmakers narrowly advance trans health care bill after internal chaosLINCOLN — Chaos erupted on the floor of the Nebraska Legislature on Thursday after a last-minute effort to consider an “olive branch” amendment on a bill to restrict some gender-affirming care for minors. Legislative Bill 574, proposed by State Sen. Kathleen …
Raw Story · April 14, 2023
Fiery debate erupt in Nebraska House over amendment to Holocaust billA sometimes fiery debate erupted Wednesday in the State Legislature over whether Nebraska schoolchildren are learning enough about slavery and genocide.The discussion was spiced by complaints about the power of the governor.The dialogue came over the last bil…
Raw Story · April 15, 2022
Lieutenant governor hopeful criticizes veto of schools billLINCOLN, Neb. (AP) — A Democratic candidate for Nebraska lieutenant governor is criticizing Gov. Pete Ricketts’ veto of a bill she introduced this year to expand mental health services in schools. State Sen. Lynne Walz, of Fremont, made the comments Tuesday w…
The Seattle Times · May 1, 2018
Trump approves Nebraska disaster declaration for mid-May stormsLINCOLN — President Donald Trump this week approved a federal disaster declaration for eight Nebraska counties in the wake of severe storms that primarily hit central and southeastern Nebraska in mid-May. Nebraska Gov. Jim Pillen requested the declaration in …
Biztoc.com · August 4, 2026- Capitol agenda: Thune tries to teach Trump Senate math - Politico
Capitol agenda: Thune tries to teach Trump Senate mathPolitico Scoop: Inside the White House pitch for pre-election MAGA megabillAxios Trump calls on Senate Republicans to adopt budget resolution before recessThe Hill Gov. Pillen Joins Letter Supporting Presi…
Slashdot.org · July 30, 2026 - ARRESTED: Homosexual man threatened to shoot up Catholic school, kill children and ‘a few nuns for funsies’
Mon Jul 20, 2026 - 12:56 pm EDT OMAHA, Nebraska (LifeSiteNews) — A Nebraska man was arrested for threatening to commit a mass shooting at a Catholic school with the specific intention of killing nuns and the children of Nebraska’s devout Catholic Governor Jim…
Freerepublic.com · July 21, 2026 
University Scraps Sexuality Textbook for Containing ‘Graphic Images’University Scraps Sexuality Textbook for Containing ‘Graphic Images’ Emma Whitford Wed, 06/03/2026 - 03:00 AM The University of Nebraska at Kearney investigated several complaints in May, including one from Gov. Jim Pillen calling a training module a…
Inside Higher Ed · June 3, 2026
Nebraska: Governor signs executive order to fight antisemitism and protect Jewish studentsNebraska Governor Jim Pillen signed a landmark executive order on Friday to bolster protections against antisemitism at the state’s public schools.
Israelnationalnews.com · May 31, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Nebraska Governor race?
VotePredictor's model favors Jim Pillen (R), with roughly a 72% chance of winning and a projected margin of R+9.1.
What do the polls say in the Nebraska Governor race?
There are 2 polls of this race. The most recent, from Lake Research Partners (2026-04-29), showed R+2.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is R+9.1.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Nebraska Governor race?
Lynne Walz is the Democratic candidate; Jim Pillen is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Nebraska Governor election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Nebraska Governor race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.