Actual result
R+49.1
Final polls said
R+38.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+39.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+52.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | R+43.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+39.6 | 9.5 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 246 | R+43.0 | 8 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 246 | R+34.0 | 13 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2008-10-13 | 625 | R+52.0 | 1 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2008-10-13 | 625 | R+47.0 | 0 |