Actual result
D+19.5
Final polls said
D+12.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+9.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magellan Strategies | D+12.0 | 7.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+9.6 | 10.0 | ✓ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magellan Strategies | 2010-09-20 | 688 | D+12.0 | 8 |