Actual result
D+23.8
Final polls said
D+1.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+0.5
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JMC Analytics | D+1.0 | 22.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+0.5 | 23.4 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JMC Analytics | 2010-10-20 | 467 | D+1.0 | 23 |
| JMC Analytics | 2010-09-14 | 441 | D+1.0 | 23 |