Actual result
D+33.4
Final polls said
D+32.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+37.7
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+35.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+30.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+37.7 | 4.3 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2010-10-12 | 625 | D+35.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-13 | 500 | D+30.0 | 3 |