Vermont Governor
Phil Scott (R) is the clear favorite to win the 2026 Vermont Governor race — about a 93% chance, winning by about 6 points in the projection, though it has tightened lately. Updated daily from 5 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' published win probability for each party since September 28, when the current model began — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 5 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+5.8 — a 93% Republican win.
Latest news
Midterms may bring in wave of historic firsts across U.S.Featuring one of the most diverse slates of both Democratic and Republican candidates in recent years, this midterm election has set up a possible wave of historic leadership firsts across the country. Voters on Tuesday could propel into office the first Na…
Yahoo Entertainment · November 3, 2026
Final Poll Shows Democrat Defeating America's Most Popular GOP GovernorBeing the most popular governor in the United States may not be enough to save Vermont’s Phil Scott from an historic upset, according to a new poll. A new University of New Hampshire (UNH) Green Mountain State Poll, released Sunday, found Democrat Amanda Jano…
Biztoc.com · November 2, 2026
Scott Leads Janoo in Vermont Governor’s RaceA new State Navigate poll in Vermont finds Phil Scott (R) leading Amanda Janoo (D) in the governor’s race, 49% to 46%. Vermont Governor’s Race Phil Scott (R) 49% Amanda Janoo (D) 46% State Navigate poll · likely voters · ±2.3%
Politicalwire.com · October 27, 2026
WATCH LIVE: Gov. Scott, challenger Janoo face off in Vermont governor debateVermont Republican Gov. Phil Scott and Democratic challenger Amanda Janoo face off in a debate produced by Vermont Public.
Biztoc.com · October 21, 2026
A New Hope in VermontCan Amanda Janoo, a 39-year-old progressive economist, beat Vermont’s sitting Republican governor? The post A New Hope in Vermont appeared first on The American Prospect.
The American Prospect · October 20, 2026
Legendary polling analyst reveals staggering number as midterm results roll inElection forecaster Nate Silver says Democrats are on pace to emerge from Tuesday’s midterms holding governorships across most of the electoral map.“If the remaining results go as expected, Democrats will hold governorships in states totaling 392 electoral vo…
Raw Story · November 4, 2026
Republican Incumbent Vermont Gov. Phil Scott to Serve Sixth Term in OfficeIncumbent Vermont Gov. Phil Scott (R) secured another term on Tuesday night in the state's 2026 gubernatorial election, NBC News projects. The post Republican Incumbent Vermont Gov. Phil Scott to Serve Sixth Term in Office appeared first on Breitbart.
Breitbart News · November 4, 2026- Final Poll Shows Democrat Defeating America's Most Popular GOP Governor
Being the most popular governor in the United States may not be enough to save Vermont’s Phil Scott from an historic upset, according to a new poll. A new University of New Hampshire (UNH) Green Mountain State Poll, released Sunday, found Democrat Amanda Jano…
Biztoc.com · November 2, 2026 - Scott Leads Janoo in Vermont Governor’s Race
A new State Navigate poll in Vermont finds Phil Scott (R) leading Amanda Janoo (D) in the governor’s race, 49% to 46%. Vermont Governor’s Race Phil Scott (R) 49% Amanda Janoo (D) 46% State Navigate poll · likely voters · ±2.3%
Politicalwire.com · October 27, 2026 - WATCH LIVE: Gov. Scott, challenger Janoo face off in Vermont governor debate
Vermont Republican Gov. Phil Scott and Democratic challenger Amanda Janoo face off in a debate produced by Vermont Public.
Biztoc.com · October 21, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
7 polls · 5 in today's forecast · newest firstDimmed polls are more than 61 days old. They stay on the record, but today's forecast no longer counts them. Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.
Frequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Vermont Governor race?
VotePredictor's model favors Phil Scott (R), with roughly a 93% chance of winning and a projected margin of R+5.8.
What do the polls say in the Vermont Governor race?
There are 7 polls of this race; today's forecast uses the 5 from the last 61 days. The most recent, from University of New Hampshire (2026-10-31), showed D+8.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is R+5.8.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Vermont Governor race?
Amanda Janoo is the Democratic candidate; Phil Scott is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Vermont Governor election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 Vermont Governor forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, the race has tightened; Phil Scott (R) is now favored at 93%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Vermont Governor race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.