Phil Scott (R) is the clear favorite to win the 2026 Vermont Governor race — about a 89% chance, winning by about 19 points in the projection. Updated daily from 2 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. Dashed line = even odds.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 2 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+19.3 — a 89% Republican win. With only a poll or two this early, the forecast stays cautious and leans partly on the seat's history.
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[17] | 2026-07-20 | 954 | R+11.0 |
| University of New Hampshire[18] | 2026-06-23 | 887 | R+15.0 |
Frequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Vermont Governor race?
VotePredictor's model favors Phil Scott (R), with roughly a 89% chance of winning and a projected margin of R+19.3.
What do the polls say in the Vermont Governor race?
There are 2 polls of this race. The most recent, from University of New Hampshire[17] (2026-07-20), showed R+11.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is R+19.3.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Vermont Governor race?
Amanda Janoo is the Democratic candidate; Phil Scott is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Vermont Governor election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Vermont Governor race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.