Vermont Governor
Phil Scott (R) is the clear favorite to win the 2026 Vermont Governor race — about a 89% chance, winning by about 19 points in the projection. Updated daily.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 2 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+19.3 — a 89% Republican win. With only a poll or two this early, the forecast stays cautious and leans partly on the seat's history.
The polls behind it
No polls on file for this race.
Frequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Vermont Governor race?
VotePredictor's model favors Phil Scott (R), with roughly a 89% chance of winning and a projected margin of R+19.3.
What do the polls say in the Vermont Governor race?
No pollster has surveyed this race yet, so the forecast leans on the seat's recent history and the national political environment rather than current polls.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Vermont Governor race?
Amanda Janoo is the Democratic candidate; Phil Scott is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Vermont Governor election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Vermont Governor race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.