Actual result
R+57.1
Final polls said
R+41.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+44.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+44.3 | 12.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyMonkey | R+43.0 | 14.1 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 313 | R+43.0 | 14 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 279 | R+39.0 | 18 |