Wisconsin Governor
David Crowley (D) is a modest favorite to win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor race — about a 63% chance, winning by about 2 points in the projection, after the lead recently flipped. Updated daily from 4 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 4 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+1.8 — a 63% Democratic win.
Latest news
David Crowley announces run for Wisconsin governor, endorsed by ObamaCrowley's candidacy, bolstered by key endorsements, could reshape Wisconsin's political landscape and influence future Democratic strategies. The post David Crowley announces run for Wisconsin governor, endorsed by Obama appeared first on Crypto Briefing.
Crypto Briefing · Today
Are the Blue Wave Polls Too Good to Be True?I’m nervous about the polls and election forecasts projecting a huge Democratic wave. And I think you should be too. Why? For two reasons. First of all, the numbers, as eye-watering as they are, may be setting us up for disappointment, even if Democrats have …
The New Republic · October 7, 2026- Wisconsin abortion law: Where Crowley, Tiffany stand
MILWAUKEE - Abortion hasn't been a major focus in the race for Wisconsin governor, but with just four weeks to go, Democrat David Crowley is making a new push. Constitutional amendment? What they're saying: Crowley announced he backs a push to amend the Wisco…
Freerepublic.com · October 7, 2026 
Crowley says Black infant health is a priority; Tiffany silentWe asked David Crowley and Tom Tiffany how they would address Wisconsin’s Black infant mortality crisis if elected governor. Tiffany didn’t respond.
Captimes.com · October 6, 2026
The Three Billionaires Trying to Buy Wisconsin’s Governor’s RaceRepublican Representative Tom Tiffany has raised more than $26 million in his bid to become Wisconsin’s next governor, the vast majority of which appears to have come from three billionaires.Between August 13 and September 19, the Republican Party of Wisconsi…
The New Republic · October 1, 2026
- Crowley says Black infant health is a priority; Tiffany silent
We asked David Crowley and Tom Tiffany how they would address Wisconsin’s Black infant mortality crisis if elected governor. Tiffany didn’t respond.
Captimes.com · October 6, 2026 - The Three Billionaires Trying to Buy Wisconsin’s Governor’s Race
Republican Representative Tom Tiffany has raised more than $26 million in his bid to become Wisconsin’s next governor, the vast majority of which appears to have come from three billionaires.Between August 13 and September 19, the Republican Party of Wisconsi…
The New Republic · October 1, 2026 
Tiffany in Striking Distance of Flipping Wisconsin After Break With TrumpA Marquette Law poll released on Wednesday shows that the race between Republican Representative Tom Tiffany and Democratic Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley for Wisconsin governor is a statistical tie, as Tiffany has broken with President Donald Trump…
Biztoc.com · September 30, 2026
Crowley Leads Tiffany in Wisconsin Governor’s RaceA new Marquette Law School Poll poll in Wisconsin finds David Crowley (D) leading Tom Tiffany (R) in the governor’s race, 49% to 46%. Wisconsin Governor’s Race David Crowley (D) 49% Tom Tiffany (R) 46% Marquette Law School Poll poll · likely voters · ±4.8%
Politicalwire.com · September 30, 2026
Tiffany Campaign Bars Journal-Sentinel Reporters From EventRep. Tom Tiffany, the Republican nominee for Wisconsin governor, is facing questions over press access after his campaign barred two Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reporters from a Thursday event. The move kept Wisconsin's largest newspaper from covering the stop…
Newser · September 25, 2026
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The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Wisconsin Governor race?
VotePredictor's model favors David Crowley (D), with roughly a 63% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+1.8.
What do the polls say in the Wisconsin Governor race?
There are 4 polls of this race. The most recent, from Marquette University Law School (2026-09-23), showed D+3.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+1.8.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Wisconsin Governor race?
David Crowley is the Democratic candidate; Tom Tiffany is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Wisconsin Governor election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 Wisconsin Governor forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, the lead has changed hands — it now favors David Crowley (D) at 63%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Wisconsin Governor race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.