Wisconsin Governor
The 2026 Wisconsin Governor race is essentially a toss-up: Tom Tiffany (R) holds a narrow 52% edge, projected to win by less than a point, though it has tightened lately. Updated daily from 7 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 7 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+0.5 — a 52% Republican win.
Latest news
GOP Rep. Tiffany: WI Democrat Nominee Crowley like Hong — Both 'Capitulated to the Socialists'Monday on FBN's "Mornings with Maria," Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-WI), the Republican Wisconsin gubernatorial nominee, said his opponent Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley was much like now-former Democratic Socialists of America Democratic hopeful Francesca H…
Breitbart News · Yesterday
MAGA, The DSA, & The Politics Of No CompetitionMAGA, The DSA, & The Politics Of No Competition Authored by Katherine Gehl via RealClearPolitics, Despite the narrow loss by Democratic Socialist Francesca Hong in the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary last week, DSA candidates have prevailed in pr…
Biztoc.com · Yesterday
Wait, Are Dems Ahead in ... Arkansas?You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside WashingtonDo Democrats have a chance to flip a Senate seat in Arkansas? One poll this week s…
The New Republic · August 21, 2026
Why the GOP’s Pushing a “Satanic Wedding” Story in This RaceYou’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside WashingtonThis could be Dems’ best chance to flip a House seat in IowaSarah Trone Garriott m…
The New Republic · August 20, 2026
Speaking of Bad Polls…The poor quality of polling with regard to the midterm primaries has been widely commented on. Largely, that reflects the fact that primaries are inherently small turnout, volatile, and hard to poll. But this year there was something else going on: So this is…
Power Line · August 19, 2026
- Wisconsin Goods Exports by Destination, 2025
As we lumber into an expanded trade war with Canada: Source: Census via ITA, and author’s calculations. To date (1pm CT), gubernatorial candidate Tom Tiffany has not made a comment on the original Section 338 tariffs to be levied against Canada, nor this morn…
Econbrowser.com · Yesterday - GOP Rep. Tiffany: WI Democrat Nominee Crowley like Hong — Both 'Capitulated to the Socialists'
Monday on FBN's "Mornings with Maria," Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-WI), the Republican Wisconsin gubernatorial nominee, said his opponent Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley was much like now-former Democratic Socialists of America Democratic hopeful Francesca H…
Breitbart News · Yesterday 
Data Center Backlash Gives GOP an Opening in Wisconsin Governor’s RaceFIRST ON DAILY SIGNAL— Republican gubernatorial candidate Tom Tiffany is betting Wisconsin voters’ growing opposition to data centers can help flip the governor’s mansion, and new polling suggests he may have found one of the most potent issues in the race. A…
Daily Signal · August 21, 2026
David Crowley leads Tom Tiffany in Wisconsin governor race: pollCrowley's lead among independents may signal a shift in Wisconsin's political landscape, potentially impacting future elections and policies. The post David Crowley leads Tom Tiffany in Wisconsin governor race: poll appeared first on Crypto Briefing.
Crypto Briefing · August 20, 2026- Why the GOP’s Pushing a “Satanic Wedding” Story in This Race
You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside WashingtonThis could be Dems’ best chance to flip a House seat in IowaSarah Trone Garriott m…
The New Republic · August 20, 2026
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The polls behind it
7 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Wisconsin Governor race?
VotePredictor's model favors Tom Tiffany (R), with roughly a 52% chance of winning and a projected margin of R+0.5. It is close enough to be a toss-up.
What do the polls say in the Wisconsin Governor race?
There are 7 polls of this race. The most recent, from Platform Communications (2026-08-13), showed D+4.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is R+0.5.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Wisconsin Governor race?
David Crowley is the Democratic candidate; Tom Tiffany is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Wisconsin Governor election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 Wisconsin Governor forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, the race has tightened; Tom Tiffany (R) is now favored at 52%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Wisconsin Governor race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.