Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 3 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+3.7 — a 59% Republican win.
Forecast over time
The model's win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date. Dashed line = even odds.
Latest news
- A spoonful of sugar helps the poison go down
According to Wisconsin socialist Democrat candidate Francesca Hong, "I think that when folks hear 'socialism,' they may be taken aback, but I bring it back to potholes and the [Green Bay] Packers and public education." That was how Hong explained to an MSNOW …
Freerepublic.com · Today 
Democratic socialist Francesca Hong tests how far left voters will go in battleground WisconsinOver the last month, Democratic socialists have notched victories in the liberal strongholds of New York City, Washington, D.C., and Denver.
Biztoc.com · Yesterday
Wisconsin Democrat downplays appearing on Hasan Piker's show, doesn't 'endorse' everything he saysWisconsin Democratic gubernatorial candidate Francesca Hong faced criticism after appearing on far-left Twitch streamer Hasan Piker's fundraiser livestream.
Fox News · Yesterday
SCOTT WALKER: Democratic Socialists are coming for my state. This is how we beat themFrancesca Hong leads the Democratic primary for governor as Tom Tiffany frames the Wisconsin race as a clear choice of common sense vs. crazy.
Fox News · Yesterday
The Socialist Surge Reaches Wisconsin: Governor Candidate Tests the Left’s LimitsBy Jarrett Stepman, The Daily Signal | July 07, 2026 The socialist wave has already crashed well beyond New York City. Now the Democratic Socialists of America is even taking swings at swing states. The latest far-left darling is Francesca Hong, a leading can…
Biztoc.com · Yesterday
- SCOTT WALKER: Democratic Socialists are coming for my state. This is how we beat them
Francesca Hong leads the Democratic primary for governor as Tom Tiffany frames the Wisconsin race as a clear choice of common sense vs. crazy.
Fox News · Yesterday 
Tiffany Is Bothered By Black Man Not Appreciating SlaveryTom Tiffany, a white man running to be Wisconsin's next governor, is running an ad of a sound bite he gave at a sparsely attended event in someone's alley. In the soundbite ad, Tiffany says he has complaints about people like Mandela Barnes, a Black man who i…
Crooksandliars.com · July 6, 2026
Transcript: Trump Shows New Signs of Midterm Panic as Brutal Polls HitThe following is a lightly edited transcript of the July 2 episode of the Daily Blast podcast. Listen to it here.Greg Sargent: This is The Daily Blast from The New Republic, produced and presented by the DSR Network. I’m your host, Greg Sargent.This week, The…
The New Republic · July 2, 2026
Wisconsin's Republican Odd Couple Hit First Holiday StrifeIn May, Wisconsin Republicans had their state convention, during which they voted to endorse Tom Tiffany as their candidate for governor and Will Martin as their candidate for lieutenant governor. One would think that while there are still several Democratic …
Crooksandliars.com · June 23, 2026
Tom Tiffany Caught In A Pay-For-Play ScandalWisconsin gubernatorial candidate and U.S. Representative Tom Tiffany got caught with his hand in the proverbial cookie jar. Last July, Tiffany wrote and introduced the Wabeno Economic Development Act. The sole purpose of this bill is to allow a company, Ton…
Crooksandliars.com · June 15, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Public Sentiment Institute | 2026-05-15 | 880 | R+1.0 |
| TIPP Insights | 2026-03-19 | 1175 | R+3.0 |
| Patriot Polling | 2026-03-16 | 812 | R+4.0 |