Actual result
R+10.7
Final polls said
R+4.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+8.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+8.4 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Global Strategy Group | R+4.0 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | R+4.0 | 6.7 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group | 2016-10-12 | 402 | R+4.0 | 7 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2016-10-07 | 456 | R+4.0 | 7 |