Actual result
D+10.6
Final polls said
D+6.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+4.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | YouGov | D+12.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs/Melanson | D+8.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Keating Research/Magellan Strategies | D+7.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | Magellan Strategies | D+5.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | D+4.6 | 6.0 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magellan Strategies | 2018-10-29 | 500 | D+5.0 | 6 |
| Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs/Melanson | 2018-10-27 | 517 | D+8.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2018-10-14 | 800 | D+12.0 | 1 |
| Magellan Strategies | 2018-10-09 | 500 | D+7.0 | 4 |
| Keating Research/Magellan Strategies | 2018-09-19 | 600 | D+7.0 | 4 |