Actual result
D+7.4
Final polls said
D+14.2
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+15.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Victory Research | D+14.2 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+15.8 | 8.4 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 87% | 0.017 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 67% | 0.106 | ✓ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victory Research | 2020-10-31 | 600 | D+14.2 | 7 |