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Toss-up · 2020 House
Illinois House
In the 2020 Illinois House race, Sean Casten (D) won by about 7 points.
Actual result
D+7.4
Final polls said
D+14.2
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Victory Research | D+14.2 | 6.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 87% | 0.017 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 67% | 0.106 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Victory Research2020-10-317
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Illinois House race?
Sean Casten (D) won, by about 7.4 points (D+7.4).
When was the 2020 Illinois House election held?
It was held in November 2020.