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Maine President
Actual result
D+21.8
Final polls said
D+22.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+22.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+22.1 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | D+21.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of New Hampshire | D+24.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Split Ticket | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | Race to the WH | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | Fox News | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | Elections Daily | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 12 | Silver Bulletin | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 13 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 14 | VotePredictor | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire | 2024-10-31 | 801 | D+24.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2024-10-26 | 482 | D+21.0 | 1 |