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James W. Byrd vs. Harriet Hageman: Wyoming U.S. Senate election, 2026

James W. Byrd vs. Harriet Hageman. Incumbent retiring. Republican hold..

VotePredictor forecast (our model)
Harriet Hageman favored
Safe R
99%
chance to win
R+31.1
predicted margin

Fundamentals model · no poll: state lean, incumbency, the prior result and the national environment. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →

Democratic

James W. Byrd

Major-party general-election nominee.

Polls

No verified 2026 general-election poll is currently available in the feed for this race.

Campaign money

FEC reports through October 14, 2026
Harriet HagemanREP$2.8M raised
Spent $3.3MCash on hand $439k22% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. HAGEMAN VICTORY FUND$263k
  2. HAGEMAN SENATE FUND$96k
  3. KEEP THE SENATE RED 2026$83k
  4. GOP WINNING WOMEN 2026$44k
  5. 2026 SENATORS CLASSIC COMMITTEE$40k

Industries

  1. Retired$340k
  2. Self-Employed & Freelance$32k
  3. Not Reported$29k
  4. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$27k
  5. Legal & Professional Services$20k

States

  1. TX$148k
  2. CA$129k
  3. FL$79k
  4. WY$59k
  5. VA$40k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
James W. ByrdDEM$54k raised
Spent $47kCash on hand $8k38% from donors under $200Self-funded $1k
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. CHESTEK, KEN$2k
  2. SCHUSTER, ROBERT$2k
  3. ADACHI, FUJI$1k
  4. BLUE, BRENT$1k
  5. BOYCE, KEVIN$1k

Industries

  1. Unemployed$7k
  2. Self-Employed & Freelance$3k
  3. Not Reported$3k
  4. Retired$750

States

  1. WY$20k
  2. CA$900
  3. WA$416
  4. FL$250
  5. NM$250
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗

What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The Senate forecast does not read these figures. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.

Other forecasts

VotePredictor (ours)
R 99%
a probability from our model
Cook
Solid R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
DDHQ
Safe R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 3, 2026
Econ
Safe R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 3, 2026
FPO
Safe R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Fox
Solid R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 1, 2026
IE
Solid R≈ R 99%
as of Oct 29, 2026
MS NOW
Safe R≈ R 99%
as of Oct 29, 2026
NBC
Solid R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 3, 2026
RCP
Solid R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Sabato
Safe R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Silver
Solid R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 3, 2026
ST
Safe R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026

The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗

Independent models

Who Shows Up · independent model ↗
R 99%R+39.0
as of 2026-11-03

Win probabilities published by independent statistical models, shown with credit as their terms allow: Who Shows Up (whoshowsup.net), by Kurt Wirth. These are their numbers, not ratings converted by us, and not VotePredictor's. The better-known model forecasters (Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, the Economist) don't permit republishing their probabilities, so they appear above by rating only.

Past results

Every U.S. Senate election in Wyoming we hold a result for. A state elects two senators on separate cycles, so this covers both of its seats, not only the one on the ballot in 2026.

YearWinnerMargin
2024John Barrasso(R)R+51.0
2020Cynthia M. Lummis(R)R+46.1
2018John Barrasso(R)R+36.9
2014Michael B. Enzi(R)R+54.7
2008John Barrasso(R)R+51.4
2006Craig Thomas(R)R+40.1
2000Craig Thomas(R)R+51.7

Candidate news

No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.