Terri Pickens vs. Brad Little: Idaho governor election, 2026

Terri Pickens vs. Brad Little. Incumbent re-elected..

VotePredictor forecast (our model)

Brad Little favored

Safe R

99%

chance to win

R+23.3

predicted margin

Poll-driven model · 3 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →

Democratic

Terri Pickens

Major-party general-election nominee.

Republican

Brad Little

Major-party general-election nominee.

Other listed candidates

John Stegner · Independent
Paul Sand · Libertarian
Pro-Life · Constitution

Polls

The polls behind it

3 polls · newest first

Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.

PollsterDateMarginOur adj.

VoteNexus Research (via Wikipedia)10-22R+19.0R+19.7

Advanced Targeting Research (via Wikipedia)09-16R+10.0R+11.8

Change Research (via Wikipedia)Grade B-07-30R+21.0R+24.5

Other forecasts

VotePredictor (ours)

R 99%

a probability from our model

Cook

Solid R≈ R 99%

as of Oct. 29, 2026

DDHQ

Safe R≈ R 99%

as of Nov. 3, 2026

Fox

Solid R≈ R 99%

as of Nov. 1, 2026

Solid R≈ R 99%

as of Oct. 29, 2026

NBC

Solid R≈ R 99%

as of Nov. 3, 2026

RCP

Solid R≈ R 99%

as of Nov. 1, 2026

Sabato

Safe R≈ R 99%

as of Nov. 2, 2026

Silver

Solid R≈ R 99%

as of Nov. 3, 2026

The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗

Independent models

Who Shows Up · independent model ↗

R 99%R+28.0

as of 2026-11-03

Win probabilities published by independent statistical models, shown with credit as their terms allow: Who Shows Up (whoshowsup.net), by Kurt Wirth. These are their numbers, not ratings converted by us, and not VotePredictor's. The better-known model forecasters (Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, the Economist) don't permit republishing their probabilities, so they appear above by rating only.

Past results

Every Idaho election for governor we hold a result for.

YearWinnerMargin

2018Brad Little(R)R+21.6

2014C.L. 'Butch' Otter(R)R+15.0

2010C.L. 'Butch' Otter(R)R+26.3

2006C.L. 'Butch' Otter(R)R+8.6

2002C. Dirk Kempthorne(R)R+14.6

Candidate news

Idaho Democrats choose small business owner in uphill race against incumbent GOP governor

Idaho Gov. Brad Little will face Democrat Terri Pickens in the general election as he vies for a third term in a solidly Republican state this November.

Fox News · May 20, 2026

Repro Rights Roundup: Now Let's Have EVERY State Vote On Abortion

It's been one of the better weeks for abortion rights in quite some time now, with six — six! — states either voting to put the right to abortion in their constitutions or voting against banning abortion in their constitutions. It's almost as if people do not…

Wonkette.com · November 11, 2022

The race for Idaho lieutenant governor: Part 2

Democrat Terri Pickens Manweiler discusses her run for lieutenant governor, Idaho's strict anti-abortion law and education funding.

KTVB.com · October 2, 2022

Idaho Trumper misses paycheck after mismanagement left her office with only $0.72: report

Improper public records management has taken a personal financial toll on the controversial lieutenant governor of Idaho."Idaho Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachin deferred most of her June 24 paycheck to balance her office’s budget, leaving the budget with less than $…

Raw Story · July 2, 2022

An ugly radioactive surprise is buried deep inside Trump's deal for a loyal MAGA state

One of the most critical issues facing Idaho is one that has received little attention but has profound consequences for the future of our state – the agreement that would make Idaho the dumping ground for a third of the radioactive waste generated in our cou…

Raw Story · September 9, 2026

Idaho Builds Border Wall Out of Potatoes to Keep Out Californians

BOISE, ID — In a bold stand against the western invasion, Idaho Governor Brad Little announced today that the state had constructed a new border wall of potatoes to keep out Californians.

Babylonbee.com · July 16, 2026

Skeptical Science New Research for Week #29 2026

Open access notables Renewable energy discourses of fossil fuel companies: obstruction and delay of climate action, Desai et al., Energy Sustainability and Society For decades, multinational fossil fuel companies have strategically promoted discourses to ob…

Skepticalscience.com · July 16, 2026

Idaho law criminalizes trans people’s bathroom use. Advocates are mapping safe places to pee

A new Idaho law may outlaw transgender people's use of public restrooms, but advocates are mapping the private facilities where anyone can pee in peace. Trans Affirm just released an online "Idaho Inclusive Bathroom Map," which shows both the safe and non-inc…

Freerepublic.com · July 10, 2026