Idaho Governor
Brad Little (R) is all but certain to win the 2026 Idaho Governor race — about a 99% chance, winning by about 22 points in the projection, and the lead has grown lately. Updated daily from 2 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 2 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+21.9 — a 100% Republican win. With only a poll or two this early, the forecast stays cautious and leans partly on the seat's history.
Latest news
Idaho Democrats choose small business owner in uphill race against incumbent GOP governorIdaho Gov. Brad Little will face Democrat Terri Pickens in the general election as he vies for a third term in a solidly Republican state this November.
Fox News · May 20, 2026
Repro Rights Roundup: Now Let's Have EVERY State Vote On AbortionIt's been one of the better weeks for abortion rights in quite some time now, with six — six! — states either voting to put the right to abortion in their constitutions or voting against banning abortion in their constitutions. It's almost as if people do not…
Wonkette.com · November 11, 2022
The race for Idaho lieutenant governor: Part 2Democrat Terri Pickens Manweiler discusses her run for lieutenant governor, Idaho's strict anti-abortion law and education funding.
KTVB.com · October 2, 2022
Idaho Trumper misses paycheck after mismanagement left her office with only $0.72: reportImproper public records management has taken a personal financial toll on the controversial lieutenant governor of Idaho."Idaho Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachin deferred most of her June 24 paycheck to balance her office’s budget, leaving the budget with less than $…
Raw Story · July 2, 2022
An ugly radioactive surprise is buried deep inside Trump's deal for a loyal MAGA stateOne of the most critical issues facing Idaho is one that has received little attention but has profound consequences for the future of our state – the agreement that would make Idaho the dumping ground for a third of the radioactive waste generated in our cou…
Raw Story · September 9, 2026
Idaho Builds Border Wall Out of Potatoes to Keep Out CaliforniansBOISE, ID — In a bold stand against the western invasion, Idaho Governor Brad Little announced today that the state had constructed a new border wall of potatoes to keep out Californians.
Babylonbee.com · July 16, 2026
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #29 2026Open access notables Renewable energy discourses of fossil fuel companies: obstruction and delay of climate action, Desai et al., Energy Sustainability and Society For decades, multinational fossil fuel companies have strategically promoted discourses to ob…
Skepticalscience.com · July 16, 2026- Idaho law criminalizes trans people’s bathroom use. Advocates are mapping safe places to pee
A new Idaho law may outlaw transgender people's use of public restrooms, but advocates are mapping the private facilities where anyone can pee in peace. Trans Affirm just released an online "Idaho Inclusive Bathroom Map," which shows both the safe and non-inc…
Freerepublic.com · July 10, 2026 - Idaho law criminalizes trans people’s bathroom use. Advocates are mapping safe places to pee
A new Idaho law may outlaw transgender people's use of public restrooms, but advocates are mapping the private facilities where anyone can pee in peace. Trans Affirm just released an online "Idaho Inclusive Bathroom Map," which shows both the safe and non-inc…
Freerepublic.com · July 10, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Idaho Governor race?
VotePredictor's model favors Brad Little (R), with roughly a 99% chance of winning and a projected margin of R+21.9.
What do the polls say in the Idaho Governor race?
There are 2 polls of this race. The most recent, from Advanced Targeting Research (2026-09-16), showed R+10.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is R+21.9.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Idaho Governor race?
Terri Pickens is the Democratic candidate; Brad Little is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Idaho Governor election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 Idaho Governor forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, Brad Little's (R) lead has widened to 99%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Idaho Governor race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.