Actual result
R+15.0
Final polls said
R+15.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+16.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+16.4 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Policy Polling | R+12.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | YouGov | R+18.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-10-31 | 1001 | R+12.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 575 | R+18.0 | 3 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-10-11 | 522 | R+4.0 | 11 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 594 | R+24.0 | 9 |