Democratic
JoAnna Mendoza
Major-party general-election nominee.
VotePredictor forecast
JoAnna Mendoza favored
Lean D · predicted margin D+2.6
69%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+1.02026 national environment
D+6.6District polls
2, averaging D+2.5Forecast spread
±5.3 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 2 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 54% of the weight: the model alone said D+2.7.
Republican
Juan Ciscomani
Incumbent representative for AZ-6. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Jereme Peters · Libertarian
- Gary Swing · Green
Polls
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMargin
Normington, Petts & Associates2026-06-11D+2.0
Ragnar Research Partners2026-03-14D+3.0
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 54% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for AZ-6; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Arizona's 6th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
Arizona’s closest House district returns to the national spotlight
Arizona’s 6th District is a competitive Republican-held seat in southeastern Arizona and one of the clearest House pickup opportunities for Democrats. Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani is facing Democrat JoAnna Mendoza in a district where the presidential contes…
The Times of India · September 18, 2026
Republicans are quiet-quitting Trump's big party with suspiciously timed conflicts: report
GOP candidates in competitive House races told a columnist they don't know whether they'll appear at President Donald Trump's midterm convention because of scheduling conflicts.In a Tuesday column, political commentator Joe Perticone noted a "conveniently tim…
Raw Story · September 1, 2026
Secretary Rollins Visits Douglas Port of Entry, Announces $25 Million Commitment for New Arizona Sterile Fly Dispersal Facility
Secretary Highlights USDA’s Readiness Ahead of Douglas Port Reopening and Continued Aggressive Response to New World Screwworm (Washington, D.C., July 29, 2026) – Today, U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke L. Rollins visited the livestock inspection faciliti…
Equinechronicle.com · July 30, 2026
Vulnerable Republican wins GOP primary in Arizona toss-up district Dems aim to flip blue
Rep. Juan Ciscomani will face Democrat JoAnna Mendoza in a toss-up Arizona House race that could determine which party controls Congress after midterms.
Fox News · July 22, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗