Democratic
JoAnna Mendoza
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all House races
Arizona District 6 election, 2026
JoAnna Mendoza vs. Juan Ciscomani. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
JoAnna Mendoza favored
Lean D · predicted margin D+3.6
75%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+1.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
3, averaging D+3.0Forecast spread
±5.3 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 3 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 54% of the weight: the model alone said D+4.4.
Republican
Juan Ciscomani
Incumbent representative for AZ-6. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Jereme Peters · Libertarian
- Gary Swing · Green
Polls
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).
PollsterDateSampleMargin
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 54% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026JoAnna MendozaDEM$11.2M raised
Spent $10.4MCash on hand $808k34% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$2.6M
- Self-Employed & Freelance$397k
- Unemployed$243k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$195k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$102k
States
- AZ$1.2M
- CA$1.1M
- NY$573k
- MA$385k
- WA$182k
Juan CiscomaniREP · incumbent$7.6M raised
Spent $7.3MCash on hand $619k8% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$638k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$251k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$217k
- Not Reported$132k
- Legal & Professional Services$70k
States
- AZ$862k
- CA$365k
- TX$159k
- FL$148k
- NY$129k
Jereme PetersLIB$11k raised
Spent $11kCash on hand $00% from donors under $200
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for AZ-6; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Arizona's 6th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
JUST IN: Arizona Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani Unseated by Democrat
Republican Congressman Juan Ciscomani has been unseated by Democrat Joanna Mendoza in the Arizona House race for Congressional District 6. Ciscomani's race is the first incumbent Republican House seat to be flipped in the state, which currently has close rac…
Thegatewaypundit.com · November 4, 2026
Queer Marine veteran JoAnna Mendoza flips Arizona House seat, defeating Republican Juan Ciscomani
Democratic congressional candidate JoAnna Mendoza, an openly LGBTQ+ Marine veteran who served during the military’s discriminatory "don’t ask, don’t tell” era, has defeated Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani in Arizona’s 6th Congressional District, flipping a clo…
Advocate.com · November 4, 2026
'Severe risk of losing': Top political group makes stunning change in midterm predictions
Four Republican incumbents may have cost their party control of the House of Representatives this month, according to leading political analysts. Cook Political Report, the nonpartisan ratings group Washington is apparently "obsessed" with, has quietly bumped…
Raw Story · October 28, 2026
Minnesotans: Trump’s Raid on Ilhan Omar Will Backfire Big-Time
You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside Washington Minnesota leaders are decrying the raid on Representative Ilhan Omar’s D.C. home …
The New Republic · October 15, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗