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Toss-up · 2018 House
Arizona House
In the 2018 Arizona House race, David Schweikert (R) won by about 10 points.
Actual result
R+10.4
Final polls said
R+14.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+14.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 98% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | The Economist | Rep 82% | 0.031 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-134
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Arizona House race?
David Schweikert (R) won, by about 10.4 points (R+10.4).
When was the 2018 Arizona House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.