Democratic
Adelita Grijalva
Incumbent representative for AZ-7. Voting record, ideology and biography →
VotePredictor forecast
Adelita Grijalva favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+28.0
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
D+22.02026 national environment
D+6.6District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.8 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Daniel Butierez
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for AZ-7. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for AZ-7; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Arizona's 7th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
'You hear that alarm?' ICE lockup's denial unravels as reporter hears blaring siren live
A U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement detention facility in Florence has had fire alarms going off throughout the day for at least two months, according to detainees who spoke with the Arizona Mirror.One detainee said that the alarm has been going off ev…
Raw Story · October 9, 2026
Federal Judge Orders Trump DHS to Return Man to US After Deportation to Equatorial Guinea
A lawyer for Ahmed Soliman, a 31-year-old Phoenix man who has been arbitrarily detained in Equatorial Guinea since April, when US immigration agents forced him onto a plane under the Trump administration's third-country deportation policy, expressed cautious …
Common Dreams · October 8, 2026
House Republican Majority Turns Razor-Thin as Democrat Is Sworn In
Speaker Mike Johnson and the GOP have an even smaller House majority now after Democratic Representative Everton Blair of Georgia was sworn in on Capitol Hill Tuesday.Republicans now have a 218 to 213 advantage over Democrats, and they’ll be down one more vot…
The New Republic · September 1, 2026
The Arizona Tribe That’s Been Dragged Back Into Trump’s Border Wars
On April 28, Chairman Verlon Jose of the Tohono O’odham Nation received a message from a representative of the Department of Homeland Security. A contractor working on behalf of DHS to construct an additional border wall along the U.S.-Mexico border had destr…
The New Republic · August 10, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗