Democratic
Dani Sterbinsky
Major-party general-election nominee.
VotePredictor forecast
Paul Gosar favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+29.0
100%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+29.82026 national environment
D+5.5Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
Paul Gosar
Incumbent representative for AZ-9. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for AZ-9. The forecast above therefore uses fundamentals only. A poll table will appear here when matched polls are available.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for AZ-9; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
The Great Antifa Hoax
Last July 4, a group of 11 protesters, among them a middle school teacher and a UPS worker, held what they called a “noise demonstration” outside the Prairieland Immigration and Customs Enforcement Detention Center in the town of Alvarado, Texas, about 30 mi…
The New Republic · May 3, 2026
New Records Reveal FBI Cooked Up Another Fake Investigation To Spy On Republicans
Months after opening Rampart Twelve, the FBI and DOJ still had no evidence to indicate that Lauren Boebert and Paul Gosar were guilty of the allegations against them. Partisan prosecutors at the Biden administration’s Department of Justice charged forward wit…
Freerepublic.com · April 22, 2026
Liberal media silent as Senate proves FBI spied on GOP without evidence as soon as Biden was president
Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) has obtained new documents revealing that the Biden FBI's targeting of GOP lawmakers in the wake of the Jan. 6, 2021, protests was not limited to Operation Arctic Frost but was rather "part of a pattern of political weaponization.…
TheBlaze · April 21, 2026
It’s Time For Congress To End OPT And Put American Workers First
By Rep. Paul Gosar via The Daily Signal | December 11, 2025 For too long, Washington has allowed a massive, unauthorized foreign guest-worker pipeline to operate outside the law, undercut American students, and expose our nation to significant economic and na…
Biztoc.com · December 12, 2025
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗