Democratic
Dani Sterbinsky
Major-party general-election nominee.
VotePredictor forecast
Paul Gosar favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+25.0
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+31.02026 national environment
D+6.6District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.8 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Paul Gosar
Incumbent representative for AZ-9. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for AZ-9. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for AZ-9; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Arizona's 9th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
The GOP's 3-Step Scam: Break the Country, Blame Others, Then Claim Only We Can Fix It
It’s not working any more, this scam Republicans have been running for 45 years, although Trump and many others are trying their best to revive it. Their strategy has always been simple: break things here in America, create chaos and a mess, hurt working clas…
Common Dreams · September 28, 2026
The Great Antifa Hoax
Last July 4, a group of 11 protesters, among them a middle school teacher and a UPS worker, held what they called a “noise demonstration” outside the Prairieland Immigration and Customs Enforcement Detention Center in the town of Alvarado, Texas, about 30 mi…
The New Republic · May 3, 2026
New Records Reveal FBI Cooked Up Another Fake Investigation To Spy On Republicans
Months after opening Rampart Twelve, the FBI and DOJ still had no evidence to indicate that Lauren Boebert and Paul Gosar were guilty of the allegations against them. Partisan prosecutors at the Biden administration’s Department of Justice charged forward wit…
Freerepublic.com · April 22, 2026
Liberal media silent as Senate proves FBI spied on GOP without evidence as soon as Biden was president
Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) has obtained new documents revealing that the Biden FBI's targeting of GOP lawmakers in the wake of the Jan. 6, 2021, protests was not limited to Operation Arctic Frost but was rather "part of a pattern of political weaponization.…
TheBlaze · April 21, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗