Democratic
Dani Sterbinsky
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Arizona District 9 election, 2026
Dani Sterbinsky vs. Paul Gosar. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Paul Gosar favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+23.2
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+31.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±6.6 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Paul Gosar
Incumbent representative for AZ-9. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for AZ-9. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Paul GosarREP · incumbent$814k raised
Spent $655kCash on hand $250kDebts $3k23% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$166k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$28k
- Not Reported$26k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$21k
- Homemaker$16k
States
- AZ$353k
- TX$42k
- CA$38k
- VA$18k
- KS$9k
Dani SterbinskyDEM$462k raised
Spent $432kCash on hand $34k85% from donors under $200Self-funded $250
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$29k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$15k
- Government$700
- Retail, Food & Consumer Goods$500
- Retired$400
States
- AZ$18k
- TX$8k
- NY$8k
- CA$6k
- MD$3k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for AZ-9; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Arizona's 9th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
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