Actual result
D+4.1
Final polls said
D+4.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
EVEN
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GBAO | D+4.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Impact Research | D+5.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | EVEN | 4.1 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research | 2012-09-10 | 400 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| GBAO | 2012-09-09 | 400 | D+4.0 | 0 |