Democratic
Mike McGuire
Major-party general-election nominee.
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California District 1 election, 2026
Mike McGuire vs. James Gallagher on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Mike McGuire favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+16.4
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+12.62026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
1, averaging D+14.0Forecast spread
±6.1 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 1 district poll are blended in by inverse variance, about 39% of the weight: the model alone said D+17.9.
Republican
James Gallagher
Incumbent representative for CA-1. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).
PollsterDateSampleMargin
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 39% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Mike McGuireDEM$2.3M raised
Spent $2.1MCash on hand $154k25% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$634k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$181k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$103k
- Legal & Professional Services$19k
- Government$14k
States
- CA$1.1M
- NV$17k
- DC$12k
- AZ$10k
- MA$8k
James GallagherREP$2.0M raised
Spent $1.7MCash on hand $328kDebts $25k4% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Not Reported$58k
- Manufacturing & Industrial$9k
- Retired$8k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$7k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$5k
States
- CA$209k
- NV$5k
- DC$3k
- OK$3k
- VA$2k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for CA-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in California's 1st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Californian’s bill targets negligent pet boarding facilities after dog’s viral death
After an influencer couple went viral in August when their dog died at a boarding facility, a congressman from California has introduced a bill to hold facilities more accountable when pets are harmed or killed. Republican Rep. James Gallagher introduced the …
Biztoc.com · October 28, 2026
What Is ‘Dunkin’s Law’? Bill Introduced After Influencer’s Dog Dies
A new law has been introduced in a bid to better animal protections by a California lawmaker after the death of a dog belonging to a popular influencer couple. Congressman James Gallagher, a California Republican, shared a post on Instagram in collaboration w…
Biztoc.com · October 27, 2026
China ties suspected in sprawling California pot operations as GOP urges FBI probe
Rep. James Gallagher urged FBI Director Kash Patel to crack down on illegal marijuana cultivation in Siskiyou County allegedly tied to Chinese organized crime.
Fox News · October 20, 2026
Republican Study Committee Members Say 'Waste, Water, and Wildfire' in California Shows the Costs of Democrat Leadership
Reps. Vince Fong (R-CA) and James Gallagher (R-CA) pointed to California’s unemployment system, high-speed rail project, wildfire and water policies, and regulatory costs as examples of problems they attributed to Democrat governance, including effects they s…
Breitbart News · October 1, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗