Democratic
Mike McGuire
Major-party general-election nominee.
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California District 1 election, 2026
Mike McGuire vs. James Gallagher on a newly enacted 2026 district map.
VotePredictor forecast
Mike McGuire favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+40.8
100%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
D+25.02026 national environment
D+5.5Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
James Gallagher
Incumbent representative for CA-1. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for CA-1. The forecast above therefore uses fundamentals only. A poll table will appear here when matched polls are available.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for CA-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
Republican James Gallagher wins special election to complete term of late California Rep. Doug LaMalfa
California Republican Assemblyman James Gallagher will serve the remainder of late congressman Doug LaMalfa's House term after cruising to victory in a special election Tuesday.
New York Post · June 3, 2026
Republican James Gallagher wins special election for vacant red House district in California
Republican state Rep. James Gallagher, the former state Assembly minority leader, will join Congress as its newest member after he won California’s 1st District special election Tuesday, NBC News projects.
NBC News · June 3, 2026
James Gallagher announces run to finish Doug LaMalfa's term
California Republican James Gallagher announced on Wednesday that he will run to serve the remainder of the late Doug LaMalfa's term in Congress.
KCRA Sacramento · January 14, 2026
California Official Renews Plan To Split State in Two
A California official has renewed plans to split the state in two after a proposal to redraw California’s congressional districts, Proposition 50, passed on Tuesday. Speaking to the Shasta County board of supervisors during a public meeting on Thursday, state…
Biztoc.com · November 10, 2025
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗