Democratic
Mark DeSaulnier
Incumbent representative for CA-10. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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California District 10 election, 2026
Mark DeSaulnier vs. Jeff Frese on a newly enacted 2026 district map.
VotePredictor forecast
Mark DeSaulnier favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+40.7
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
D+34.72026 national environment
D+6.6District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.8 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Jeff Frese
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for CA-10. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for CA-10; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in California's 10th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
A Whiff of Rebellion From Trump’s Labor Board
Even Crystal S. Carey, Republican general counsel of the National Labor Relations Board, or NLRB, the federal agency that adjudicates labor-management disputes, thinks President Donald Trump and congressional Republicans are screwing up her agency.Carey, who …
The New Republic · June 5, 2026
How Trump Is Wrecking the Agency That Protects Worker’s Labor Rights
A great riddle of the 2024 election is how Donald Trump managed to double (to 14 points) his advantage among working class voters, defined as those lacking a college degree, compared to 2016. This is a mystery because Trump spent much of his first term underm…
The New Republic · June 1, 2026
RFK Jr. Uses Vape Brand’s Marketing to Promote Vaping
Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. tried to claim Friday that vaping is healthier than smoking.Speaking before the House Education and Workforce Committee, Kennedy tried to peddle some of his classic pseudoscience. “There’s an argument for vapes,” Kennedy…
The New Republic · April 17, 2026
California Democrats Ask Kristi Noem Not to Reopen FCI Dublin as an Immigration Jail
The lawmakers, including East Bay Rep. Mark DeSaulnier, said they were concerned about detention center conditions and deaths in ICE custody.
KQED · February 18, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗