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Toss-up · 2020 House
California House
In the 2020 California House race, Doug LaMalfa (R) won by about 14 points.
Actual result
R+14.0
Final polls said
R+4.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lake Research Partners | R+4.0 | 10.0 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 96% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 89% | 0.012 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 75% | 0.061 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Lake Research Partners2020-10-0310
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 California House race?
Doug LaMalfa (R) won, by about 14.0 points (R+14.0).
When was the 2020 California House election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.