Democratic
Scott Wiener
Candidate currently listed in the 2026 field.
Other listed democratic candidates: Connie Chan.
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California District 11 election, 2026
Scott Wiener vs. Connie Chan, both Democrats, in the top-two general election on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Democrats hold the seat either way
Both finalists are Democrats; the model forecasts a Democrat against a Republican, so it does not pick between them.
2024 presidential margin
D+70.62026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (open seat: none). No district poll is blended in.
Democratic
Connie Chan
Candidate currently listed in the 2026 field.
Other listed democratic candidates: Scott Wiener.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for CA-11. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Scott WienerDEM$5.8M raised
Spent $5.2MCash on hand $611kDebts $110k4% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- ABELE, EMMA$21k
- CERON URIBE, JUAN FELIPE$21k
- FILAN, DANIEL$21k
- TURNER, ALEXANDER$21k
- YOU, JOSHUA$18k
Industries
- Not Reported$1.1M
- Technology & Communications$681k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$261k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$242k
- Legal & Professional Services$185k
States
- CA$4.5M
- NY$203k
- MA$128k
- WA$58k
- DC$54k
Connie ChanDEM$2.4M raised
Spent $1.8MCash on hand $582k9% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- ARJES, LISA$9k
- CHENG, JOHNNY$8k
- LAM, LOUIS$8k
- BORING, RON$8k
- LAU, KENNY$7k
Industries
- Unemployed$775k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$194k
- Legal & Professional Services$61k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$49k
- Government$43k
States
- CA$1.5M
- NY$54k
- DC$35k
- MD$33k
- VA$22k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for CA-11; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in California's 11th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗