Actual result
D+6.5
Final polls said
D+2.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+0.5
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RT Strategies | D+2.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | GQR | D+2.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+0.5 | 7.0 | ✗ |
| 4 | Lake Research Partners | R+1.0 | 7.5 | ✗ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-25 | 983 | D+2.0 | 5 |
| Lake Research Partners | 2006-09-30 | 442 | R+1.0 | 8 |
| GQR | 2006-09-25 | 413 | D+2.0 | 5 |