← all past elections
Toss-up · 2010 House
California House
In the 2010 California House race, Jerry McNerney (D) won by about 1 point.
Actual result
D+1.1
Final polls said
R+1.4
3 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | R+6.0 | 7.1 | ✗ |
| 2 | Lake Research Partners | D+10.0 | 8.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | ccAdvertising | R+8.2 | 9.3 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyUSA2010-10-107
ccAdvertising2010-09-299
Lake Research Partners2010-09-239
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2010 California House race?
Jerry McNerney (D) won, by about 1.1 points (D+1.1).
When was the 2010 California House election held?
It was held in November 2010.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.