Actual result
D+1.1
Final polls said
R+1.4
3 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+4.1
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+4.1 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | R+6.0 | 7.1 | ✗ |
| 3 | Lake Research Partners | D+10.0 | 8.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | ccAdvertising | R+8.2 | 9.3 | ✗ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2010-10-10 | 624 | R+6.0 | 7 |
| ccAdvertising | 2010-09-29 | 442 | R+8.2 | 9 |
| Lake Research Partners | 2010-09-23 | 500 | D+10.0 | 9 |