VotePredictor
past elections

California House

Michael M. Honda (D) vs Scott Kirkland (R)

Actual result
D+35.2
Final polls said
D+11.4
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+11.4
Winner
Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#PollsterFinal callMissCalled
1VotePredictorD+11.423.8
2GOP CallsD+11.423.8

Polls (2)

PollsterDatenPollMiss
GOP Calls2010-10-21461D+11.424
GOP Calls2010-10-14461D+16.918