Actual result
D+35.2
Final polls said
D+11.4
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+11.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+11.4 | 23.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | GOP Calls | D+11.4 | 23.8 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOP Calls | 2010-10-21 | 461 | D+11.4 | 24 |
| GOP Calls | 2010-10-14 | 461 | D+16.9 | 18 |