VotePredictor
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California District 20 election, 2026

Sandra Van Scotter vs. Vince Fong on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →

VotePredictor forecast
Vince Fong favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+25.6
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+33.0
2026 national environment
D+8.0
District polls
none
Forecast spread
±6.6 points

Margin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.

Democratic

Sandra Van Scotter

Major-party general-election nominee.

Polls

No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for CA-20. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.

Campaign money

FEC reports through October 14, 2026
Vince FongREP · incumbent$2.4M raised
Spent $1.8MCash on hand $667k1% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states

Industries

  1. Not Reported$88k
  2. Self-Employed & Freelance$59k
  3. Legal & Professional Services$37k
  4. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$34k
  5. Retired$31k

States

  1. CA$722k
  2. VA$55k
  3. FL$27k
  4. MD$24k
  5. DC$22k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
Sandra Van ScotterDEM$48k raised
Spent $42kCash on hand −$2kDebts $1k36% from donors under $200Self-funded $18k
Top contributors, industries and states

Industries

  1. Unemployed$4k
  2. Retired$3k
  3. Defense & Aerospace$2k
  4. Self-Employed & Freelance$720
  5. Not Reported$620

States

  1. CA$11k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗

What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for CA-20; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Past results

Every election in California's 20th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin

Candidate news

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: CA-2 · CA-21