Democratic
Jim Costa
Incumbent representative for CA-21. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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California District 21 election, 2026
Jim Costa vs. Kyle Kirkland on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Jim Costa favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+12.2
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+6.12026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Kyle Kirkland
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for CA-21. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Jim CostaDEM · incumbent$1.7M raised
Spent $1.4MCash on hand $501k1% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Self-Employed & Freelance$88k
- Not Reported$80k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$46k
- Legal & Professional Services$46k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$22k
States
- CA$456k
- NY$33k
- DC$25k
- TX$14k
- MD$8k
Kyle KirklandREP$465k raised
Spent $452kCash on hand $13kDebts $90k9% from donors under $200Self-funded $177k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- KIRKLAND, KYLE R$127k
- MESSINA, DANA$11k
- DEFENDIS, MICHAEL$9k
- ALTIZER, VON$8k
- CHOI, ROY$7k
Industries
- Self-Employed & Freelance$50k
- Retired$16k
- Homemaker$9k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$7k
- Wholesale & Distribution$7k
States
- CA$184k
- NV$13k
- SC$12k
- TX$12k
- NM$7k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for CA-21; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in California's 21st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Hundreds revolt as Trump moves to hand a slice of Yosemite to a private developer
Hundreds of advocacy groups and members of Congress on Tuesday called on President Donald Trump’s administration to reject a proposal to hand over part of Yosemite National Park in California to a private developer.The Washington Sun—formerly known as NOTUS—r…
Raw Story · September 16, 2026
Hundreds of Groups and Lawmakers Demand Trump Not Give Private Developer Part of Yosemite
Hundreds of advocacy groups and members of Congress on Tuesday called on President Donald Trump's administration to reject a proposal to hand over part of Yosemite National Park in California to a private developer.The Washington Sun—formerly known as NOTUS—r…
Common Dreams · September 15, 2026
Every Democrat Who Voted to Defund Schools That Boycott Israel
On Thursday, 33 Democrats joined Republicans to pass a law that would take federal funding away from academic institutions involved in any kind of boycott of or divestment from Israel. The legislation passed 237–169.The Protect Economic and Academic Freedom A…
The New Republic · September 3, 2026
California Democrat was probed in 2023 for unwanted advances towards two young female interns
House ethics officials investigated Rep. Jim Costa, according to a report.
New York Post · May 7, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗