VotePredictor
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California District 21 election, 2026

Jim Costa vs. Kyle Kirkland on a newly enacted 2026 district map.

VotePredictor forecast
Jim Costa favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+14.5
98%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
D+6.1
2026 national environment
D+6.3
Model uncertainty
±6.9 points

Fundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.

Republican

Kyle Kirkland

Major-party general-election nominee.

Polls

No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for CA-21. The forecast above uses fundamentals only.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for CA-21; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report
View House ratings ↗
Inside Elections
View House ratings ↗
Sabato's Crystal Ball
View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in California's 21st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin
2022Jim Costa(D)D+8.4
2020David G. Valadao(R)R+0.9
2018TJ Cox(D)D+0.8
2014David G. Valadao(R)R+15.7
2012David G. Valadao(R)R+15.5

Candidate news

Hundreds revolt as Trump moves to hand a slice of Yosemite to a private developer

Hundreds of advocacy groups and members of Congress on Tuesday called on President Donald Trump’s administration to reject a proposal to hand over part of Yosemite National Park in California to a private developer.The Washington Sun—formerly known as NOTUS—r…

Raw Story · September 16, 2026
Hundreds of Groups and Lawmakers Demand Trump Not Give Private Developer Part of Yosemite

Hundreds of advocacy groups and members of Congress on Tuesday called on President Donald Trump's administration to reject a proposal to hand over part of Yosemite National Park in California to a private developer.The Washington Sun—formerly known as NOTUS—r…

Common Dreams · September 15, 2026
Every Democrat Who Voted to Defund Schools That Boycott Israel

On Thursday, 33 Democrats joined Republicans to pass a law that would take federal funding away from academic institutions involved in any kind of boycott of or divestment from Israel. The legislation passed 237–169.The Protect Economic and Academic Freedom A…

The New Republic · September 3, 2026
California Democrat was probed in 2023 for unwanted advances towards two young female interns

House ethics officials investigated Rep. Jim Costa, according to a report.

New York Post · May 7, 2026

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: CA-20 · CA-22