Democratic
Jim Costa
Incumbent representative for CA-21. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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California District 21 election, 2026
Jim Costa vs. Kyle Kirkland on a newly enacted 2026 district map.
VotePredictor forecast
Jim Costa favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+19.4
100%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
D+6.02026 national environment
D+5.5Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
Kyle Kirkland
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for CA-21. The forecast above therefore uses fundamentals only. A poll table will appear here when matched polls are available.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for CA-21; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
California Democrat was probed in 2023 for unwanted advances towards two young female interns
House ethics officials investigated Rep. Jim Costa, according to a report.
New York Post · May 7, 2026
Valley Rep. Jim Costa was investigated by House Ethics panel in 2023, report says
WASHINGTON (KFSN) -- A new report says a former U.S. House of Representatives staffer filed a complaint against Valley Rep. Jim Costa with the House Committee on Ethics back in 2023.The report from News of the United States (NOTUS) says a woman, whose name is…
Freerepublic.com · May 5, 2026
Western Groups Warn Democrats: 'No Deal With Devil on Permit Reform'
Amid permitting reform negotiations and votes in the Republican-led Congress this week, dozens of organizations from the US West on Thursday urged Democratic leaders to reject "a reactive capitulation to energy and technology industry demands and the Trump ad…
Common Dreams · April 16, 2026
'We Have Only Just Begun,' Hegseth Says as 4 House Dems Join GOP to Back Trump War on Iran
As US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth declared Thursday that "the amount of firepower over Iran and over Tehran is about to surge dramatically," four Democrats in the House of Representatives voted with nearly all Republicans to reject a bipartisan war powers …
Common Dreams · March 6, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗