Actual result
D+3.4
Final polls said
R+2.0
2 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+5.6
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Normington, Petts & Associates | D+6.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+5.6 | 9.0 | ✗ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | R+10.0 | 13.4 | ✗ |
| 4 | ccAdvertising | R+23.3 | 26.7 | ✗ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2010-10-23 | 601 | R+10.0 | 13 |
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 2010-10-23 | 400 | D+6.0 | 3 |
| ccAdvertising | 2010-09-29 | 442 | R+23.3 | 27 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-09-11 | 561 | D+2.0 | 1 |