Democratic
Dave Min
Incumbent representative for CA-47. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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California District 47 election, 2026
Dave Min vs. Jenny Le Roux on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Dave Min favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+17.3
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+10.52026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Jenny Le Roux
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for CA-47. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Dave MinDEM · incumbent$3.9M raised
Spent $2.6MCash on hand $1.5M10% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$1.1M
- Self-Employed & Freelance$227k
- Legal & Professional Services$181k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$103k
- Education & Academia$74k
States
- CA$1.9M
- NY$191k
- MA$75k
- DC$75k
- FL$39k
Jenny Le RouxREP$592k raised
Spent $456kCash on hand $136kDebts $150k11% from donors under $200Self-funded $151k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$88k
- Manufacturing & Industrial$23k
- Not Reported$16k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$13k
- Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$8k
States
- CA$331k
- MA$4k
- FL$4k
- PA$3k
- DC$3k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for CA-47; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in California's 47th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
3644 - Trump Brings Oligarch Posse to China; The Artificial Inevitability of AI w/ Alex Hanna
It's an Emmajority Thursday on The Majority Report On today's program: Trump reflects on his visit to China where he failed to find any support in his efforts to open the Strait of Hormuz. In fact, moments after Trump's meeting with President Xi, Iran let Chi…
Libsyn.com · May 14, 2026
Democrats probe what they call "suspicious circumstances" of some Trump pardons
Congressional Democrats are investigating whether so-called "pay-to-play" schemes drove some of President Trump's pardons. Democratic Rep. Dave Min of California, one of the three lawmakers who launched the probe, joins "The Takeout" to discuss.
CBS News · May 8, 2026
Democrats Probe How Much Trump Pardon Recipients Paid to Get Free
Democrats in Congress are investigating whether President Trump’s pardons came with a payout for him. CBS News reports that Democratic Representatives Dave Min and Raul Ruiz, as well as Senator Peter Welch, have sent letters to over a dozen of the people Trum…
The New Republic · May 7, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗