Actual result
D+13.7
Final polls said
R+8.2
2 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+3.7
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Opinion Strategies | EVEN | 13.7 | ✗ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+3.7 | 17.4 | ✗ |
| 3 | ccAdvertising | R+16.4 | 30.1 | ✗ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2010-10-13 | 300 | EVEN | 14 |
| ccAdvertising | 2010-09-29 | 442 | R+16.4 | 30 |