California District 48 election, 2026

Marni von Wilpert vs. Jim Desmond on a newly enacted 2026 district map.

VotePredictor forecast

Marni von Wilpert favored

Likely D · predicted margin D+7.3

85%

chance to win

2024 presidential lean

D+3.5

2026 national environment

D+6.3

Model uncertainty

±6.9 points

Fundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.

Democratic

Marni von Wilpert

Major-party general-election nominee.

Republican

Jim Desmond

Major-party general-election nominee.

Polls

The polls behind it

1 poll · newest first

PollsterDateMargin

SurveyUSA2026-09-01D+3.0

Shown for context. The forecast above is fundamentals-only and does not use these polls: tested against 2016–2024, a poll-driven rule beat fundamentals only because of a single wave cycle and reversed without it. See methodology.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for CA-48; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report

View House ratings ↗

Inside Elections

View House ratings ↗

Sabato's Crystal Ball

View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in California's 48th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin

2018Harley Rouda(D)D+7.1

Candidate news

No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: CA-47 · CA-49