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Toss-up · 2016 House
California House
In the 2016 California House race, Ami Bera (D) won by about 2 points.
Actual result
D+2.3
Final polls said
D+3.0
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
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Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+5.0 | 7.3 | ✗ |
| 2 | Tulchin Research | D+11.0 | 8.7 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Tulchin Research2016-10-119
Public Opinion Strategies2016-10-027
Tulchin Research2016-09-121
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 California House race?
Ami Bera (D) won, by about 2.3 points (D+2.3).
When was the 2016 California House election held?
It was held in November 2016.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.