Actual result
D+2.3
Final polls said
D+3.0
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+5.0
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+5.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+5.0 | 7.3 | ✗ |
| 3 | Tulchin Research | D+11.0 | 8.7 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin Research | 2016-10-11 | 400 | D+11.0 | 9 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2016-10-02 | 400 | R+5.0 | 7 |
| Tulchin Research | 2016-09-12 | 400 | D+3.0 | 1 |