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Toss-up · 2024 House
Colorado House
In the 2024 Colorado House race, Gabe Evans (R) won by less than a point.
Actual result
R+0.8
Final polls said
D+1.7
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | D+1.7 | 2.5 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 3 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 5 | Split Ticket | Dem 57% | 0.325 | ✗ |
| 6 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 67% | 0.454 | ✗ |
| 8 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 71% | 0.504 | ✗ |
| 9 | The Economist | Dem 73% | 0.531 | ✗ |
| 10 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 11 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 12 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 76% | 0.574 | ✗ |
| 13 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 78% | 0.613 | ✗ |
| 14 | Race to the WH | Dem 84% | 0.702 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Emerson College2024-10-253
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 Colorado House race?
Gabe Evans (R) won, by about 0.8 points (R+0.8).
When was the 2024 Colorado House election held?
It was held in November 2024.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.