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Toss-up · 2022 House
Colorado House
In the 2022 Colorado House race, Yadira Caraveo (D) won by less than a point.
Actual result
D+0.7
Final polls said
R+2.0
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Global Strategy Group | R+2.0 | 2.7 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Race to the WH | Dem 52% | 0.230 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 3 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | CNalysis | Rep 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 5 | Inside Elections | Rep 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 6 | The Economist | Rep 66% | 0.436 | ✗ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 69% | 0.470 | ✗ |
| 8 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 9 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 10 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 11 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 12 | Split Ticket | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 13 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 86% | 0.738 | ✗ |
| 14 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 91% | 0.828 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Global Strategy Group2022-10-133
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Colorado House race?
Yadira Caraveo (D) won, by about 0.7 points (D+0.7).
When was the 2022 Colorado House election held?
It was held in November 2022.