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Toss-up · 2022 House
Colorado House
In the 2022 Colorado House race, Yadira Caraveo (D) won by less than a point.
Actual result
D+0.7
Final polls said
R+2.0
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Global Strategy Group | R+2.0 | 2.7 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Race to the WH | Dem 52% | 0.230 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 3 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 52% | 0.267 | ✗ |
| 5 | CNalysis | Rep 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 6 | Inside Elections | Rep 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 7 | The Economist | Rep 66% | 0.436 | ✗ |
| 8 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 69% | 0.470 | ✗ |
| 9 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 10 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 11 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 12 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 13 | Split Ticket | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 14 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 91% | 0.828 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Global Strategy Group2022-10-133
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Colorado House race?
Yadira Caraveo (D) won, by about 0.7 points (D+0.7).
When was the 2022 Colorado House election held?
It was held in November 2022.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.