Actual result
D+0.7
Final polls said
R+2.0
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
R+7.0
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Global Strategy Group | R+2.0 | 2.7 | ✗ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+7.0 | 7.7 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Race to the WH | Dem 52% | 0.230 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 3 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | VotePredictor | Rep 51% | 0.265 | ✗ |
| 5 | CNalysis | Rep 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 6 | Inside Elections | Rep 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 7 | The Economist | Rep 66% | 0.436 | ✗ |
| 8 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 69% | 0.470 | ✗ |
| 9 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 10 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 11 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 12 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 13 | Split Ticket | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 14 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 91% | 0.828 | ✗ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group | 2022-10-13 | 600 | R+2.0 | 3 |