Actual result
R+3.5
Final polls said
R+7.7
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+8.7
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Global Strategy Group | R+2.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | St. Pete Polls | R+7.7 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+8.7 | 5.2 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Pete Polls | 2012-10-16 | 680 | R+7.7 | 4 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2012-10-13 | 401 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| St. Pete Polls | 2012-10-04 | 498 | R+11.0 | 8 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2012-09-24 | 402 | R+5.0 | 2 |