Actual result
R+27.4
Final polls said
R+10.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+16.0
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+16.0 | 11.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Impact Research | R+10.0 | 17.4 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Elections Daily | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Fox News | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | Race to the WH | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | Split Ticket | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 12 | VotePredictor | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 13 | The Economist | Rep 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 14 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research | 2022-09-10 | 400 | R+10.0 | 17 |