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Toss-up · 2022 House
Florida House
In the 2022 Florida House race, Carlos A. Gimenez (R) won by about 27 points.
Actual result
R+27.4
Final polls said
R+10.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Impact Research | R+10.0 | 17.4 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Elections Daily | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Fox News | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | Race to the WH | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | Split Ticket | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 12 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 13 | The Economist | Rep 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 14 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Impact Research2022-09-1017
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Florida House race?
Carlos A. Gimenez (R) won, by about 27.4 points (R+27.4).
When was the 2022 Florida House election held?
It was held in November 2022.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.