Democratic
Eliott Rodriguez
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Florida District 27 election, 2026
Eliott Rodriguez vs. María Elvira Salazar on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
María Elvira Salazar favored
Lean R · predicted margin R+5.0
83%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+14.72026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
3, averaging R+1.3Forecast spread
±5.3 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 3 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 54% of the weight: the model alone said R+9.4.
Republican
María Elvira Salazar
Incumbent representative for FL-27. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).
PollsterDateSampleMargin
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 54% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026María Elvira SalazarREP · incumbent$2.5M raised
Spent $2.2MCash on hand $1.7MDebts $14k1% from donors under $200Self-funded $2k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$97k
- Retired$58k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$51k
- Manufacturing & Industrial$29k
- Legal & Professional Services$23k
States
- FL$450k
- VA$31k
- NY$26k
- TX$21k
- CA$13k
Eliott RodriguezDEM$1.6M raised
Spent $946kCash on hand $622k14% from donors under $200Self-funded $7k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$387k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$133k
- Not Reported$76k
- Legal & Professional Services$53k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$40k
States
- FL$880k
- CA$84k
- NY$48k
- MA$19k
- CO$14k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for FL-27; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Florida's 27th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
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The New Republic · September 30, 2026
Ana Navarro Asks ABC's 'The View' Audience to Consider Voting for Democrat Eliott Rodriguez in Florida
Ana Navarro, co-host of Disney's daytime talk show "The View," suggested the studio and viewing audience consider Democrat nominee Eliott Rodriguez over Republican Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar in Florida. Navarro said, "we can actually knock this woman out."
Breitbart News · September 29, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗