Democratic
Eliott Rodriguez
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Florida District 27 election, 2026
Eliott Rodriguez vs. María Elvira Salazar on a newly enacted 2026 district map.
VotePredictor forecast
María Elvira Salazar favored
Likely R · predicted margin R+6.2
88%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+14.72026 national environment
D+6.6District polls
2, averaging R+2.0Forecast spread
±5.3 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 2 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 54% of the weight: the model alone said R+11.0.
Republican
María Elvira Salazar
Incumbent representative for FL-27. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMargin
Tulchin Research2026-09-13R+1.0
Blueprint Polling2026-03-08R+3.0
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 54% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for FL-27; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Florida's 27th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
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The New Republic · September 30, 2026
Ana Navarro Asks ABC's 'The View' Audience to Consider Voting for Democrat Eliott Rodriguez in Florida
Ana Navarro, co-host of Disney's daytime talk show "The View," suggested the studio and viewing audience consider Democrat nominee Eliott Rodriguez over Republican Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar in Florida. Navarro said, "we can actually knock this woman out."
Breitbart News · September 29, 2026
Maria Elvira Salazar initially avoided Trump’s wrath. Then he turned on her
If Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar of Florida was looking to generate some attention for herself ahead of a difficult re-election campaign, the Miami-area Republican succeeded spectacularly. In politics, however, sometimes seizing the spotlight comes with unintende…
Biztoc.com · September 28, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗