Democratic
Eliott Rodriguez
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all House races
Florida District 27 election, 2026
Eliott Rodriguez vs. María Elvira Salazar on a newly enacted 2026 district map.
VotePredictor forecast
María Elvira Salazar favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+13.5
97%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+14.72026 national environment
D+6.3Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
María Elvira Salazar
Incumbent representative for FL-27. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMargin
Tulchin Research2026-09-13R+1.0
Blueprint Polling2026-03-08R+3.0
Shown for context. The forecast above is fundamentals-only and does not use these polls: tested against 2016–2024, a poll-driven rule beat fundamentals only because of a single wave cycle and reversed without it. See methodology.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for FL-27; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Florida's 27th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Mike's Blog Round Up
You Might Notice a Trend: The cowards of Congress fleeing. The Debate Link: Nonnegotiables. Bark Bark Woof Woof: Representative Maria Elvira Salazar (R-FL) turns on Trump. News from Me: Distractions upon distractions. Economic Policy Institute: CEO pay has s…
Crooksandliars.com · Yesterday
GOP Rep Maria Salazar Reveals ‘Very Good Conversation’ With Trump After Her Ad Claimed His Immigration Enforcement Went ‘Too Far’
GOP Florida Rep. Maria Salazar said Sunday she spoke with President Trump about the risks of alienating Hispanic voters over immigration enforcement.
The Daily Caller · September 20, 2026
Salazar tells Trump on Hispanic voters: "Preserve that fortune"
GOP Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar of Florida warned in a campaign ad last week that President Trump's immigration enforcement policy has "gone too far."
CBS News · September 20, 2026
Transcript: Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar on "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan," Sept. 20, 2026
The following is the transcript of the interview with Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar, Republican of Florida, that aired on "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan" on Sept. 20, 2026.
CBS News · September 20, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗