Democratic
Rachel Grage
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Florida District 5 election, 2026
Rachel Grage vs. John Rutherford on a newly enacted 2026 district map.
VotePredictor forecast
John Rutherford favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+15.8
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+21.72026 national environment
D+6.5District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.8 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
John Rutherford
Incumbent representative for FL-5. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for FL-5. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for FL-5; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Florida's 5th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
Undersecretary Martin Roger: US Congress support has helped strengthen Estonia's security
On 24 July, Martin Roger, Undersecretary for Political Affairs at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, met with a visiting delegation from the United States Congress. The delegation included members of the House of Representatives working on defence issues: Ken C…
Globalsecurity.org · July 24, 2026
Matt Gaetz’s Sudden Resignation Sure Makes Him Look Guilty
Shortly after Donald Trump made the shocking announcement to nominate Representative Matt Gaetz for attorney general on Wednesday, House Speaker Mike Johnson announced that Gaetz had already resigned from his congressional seat. While the Florida representat…
The New Republic · November 14, 2024
Incumbent Rep. John Rutherford Wins Primary in Florida
Rep. John Rutherford (R-FL) won the Republican primary Tuesday night in his bid for reelection in his Florida congressional district. The post Incumbent Rep. John Rutherford Wins Primary in Florida appeared first on Breitbart.
Breitbart News · August 21, 2024
Exclusive–Florida GOP Congressional Candidate Mara Macie: Constituents Fed Up with Establishment Rep. Rutherford's Voting Record
Republican Mara Macie, who is challenging establishment Rep. John Rutherford (R-FL) in Florida’s conservative Fifth Congressional District primary, told Sirius XM’s Breitbart News Saturday that her “salesman” opponent consistently votes the opposite of what h…
Breitbart News · May 4, 2024
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗