Actual result
R+19.7
Final polls said
R+13.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+14.7
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+14.7 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | R+14.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-28 | 495 | R+14.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-15 | 482 | R+13.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-09-18 | 572 | R+16.0 | 4 |