Actual result
R+15.3
Final polls said
R+3.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+3.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Winston Group | R+9.0 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cooper & Secrest | R+5.0 | 10.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+3.4 | 11.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Howey Politics/DePauw University | D+3.0 | 18.3 | ✗ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Howey Politics/DePauw University | 2008-10-23 | 300 | D+3.0 | 18 |
| The Winston Group | 2008-10-15 | 400 | R+9.0 | 6 |
| Cooper & Secrest | 2008-10-06 | 503 | R+5.0 | 10 |
| Cooper & Secrest | 2008-09-09 | 442 | R+13.0 | 2 |