Louisiana District 4 election, 2026

Democratic nominee TBD vs. Republican nominee TBD on a newly enacted 2026 district map.

VotePredictor forecast

Republican favored

Safe R · predicted margin R+42.2

100%

chance to win

2024 presidential lean

R+34.7

2026 national environment

D+6.3

Model uncertainty

±6.9 points

Fundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.

Democratic

Nominee not yet identified

The primary may be unresolved, or the source does not yet list one clear nominee.

Other listed democratic candidates: Conrad Cable, Matt Gromlich.

Republican

Nominee not yet identified

The primary may be unresolved, or the source does not yet list one clear nominee.

Other listed republican candidates: Gordon Heslop, Mike Johnson, Mike Nichols.

Polls

No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for LA-4. The forecast above uses fundamentals only.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for LA-4; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report

View House ratings ↗

Inside Elections

View House ratings ↗

Sabato's Crystal Ball

View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in Louisiana's 4th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin

2016"Mike" Johnson(R)R+30.4

2008John Fleming(R)R+0.4

Candidate news

No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: LA-3 · LA-5