Democratic
Nominee not yet identified
The primary may be unresolved, or the source does not yet list one clear nominee.
Other listed democratic candidates: Conrad Cable, Matt Gromlich.
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Louisiana District 4 election, 2026
Democratic nominee TBD vs. Republican nominee TBD on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Republican favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+27.3
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+34.72026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±6.6 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Nominee not yet identified
The primary may be unresolved, or the source does not yet list one clear nominee.
Other listed republican candidates: Mike Johnson, Mike Nichols, Gordon Heslop.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for LA-4. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Conrad CableDEM$1.8M raised
Spent $1.4MCash on hand $409k86% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$104k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$12k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$7k
- Retired$7k
- Not Reported$6k
States
- LA$56k
- CA$18k
- FL$15k
- PA$9k
- WA$8k
Matt GromlichDEM$452k raised
Spent $435kCash on hand $17kDebts $356k12% from donors under $200Self-funded $359k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$15k
- Retired$3k
- Not Reported$2k
- Legal & Professional Services$1k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$795
States
- LA$17k
- NC$7k
- FL$3k
- TX$1k
- CA$500
Gordon HeslopREP$129k raised
Spent $124kCash on hand $6kDebts $128kSelf-funded $128k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- HESLOP, GORDON$38k
- HESLOP, GORDON$32k
Mike NicholsREP$72k raised
Spent $68kCash on hand $82Debts $20k3% from donors under $200Self-funded $47k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Not Reported$2k
- Retired$1k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$1k
States
- LA$5k
Mike JohnsonREP · incumbent— raised
Spent —Cash on hand —
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$7.3M
- Self-Employed & Freelance$380k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$181k
- Legal & Professional Services$99k
- Retail, Food & Consumer Goods$52k
States
- TX$1.3M
- CA$1.2M
- FL$1.0M
- NY$338k
- GA$330k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for LA-4; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Louisiana's 4th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗